Rasmussen: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 39%

Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 39%
Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Support for candidates from both parties surged following Congress' passage of the national health care plan, but Republican candidates still hold a seven-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, up three points from last week, while 39% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent, up four points from the previous survey.

Voter support for Democrats is at its highest level measured since early December 2009, while GOP support matches the highest level measured since weekly tracking began in early April 2007.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters not affiliated with either major party now prefer the Republican candidate, while 25% like the Democrat. Unaffiliated support for Republicans held steady from last week, but support for Democrats is up six points from the previous survey.

One week after President Obama signed the health care bill into law, 54% of the nation's likely voters favor repealing the it.

Following passage of the health care bill, Obama experienced a modest bounce in support in the Rasmussen Reports daily President Tracking Poll. But his support came primarily from increased enthusiasm among Democrats, while the views of GOP voters and unaffiliateds were largely unchanged.

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Two weeks ago, Republicans posted a 10-point lead on the Generic Ballot, their biggest margin in nearly three years of weekly tracking. GOP candidates started 2010 ahead by nine points, while support for Democrats fell to its lowest level over the same period. Towards the end of 2009, Republicans enjoyed a more modest lead over Democrats, with the gap between the two down to four points in early December. Still, since the beginning of the year, the Republican lead hasn't dipped below seven points.

Throughout the fall and winter of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 42% to 47%. Republican support ranged from 37% to 41%. When Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, Democrats enjoyed a seven-point advantage on the Generic Ballot.

The two parties were very close on the Generic Ballot throughout the spring of 2009, but in late June - around the same time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform -- Republicans pulled ahead for good.

Separate polling finds that 52% of voters believe the average member of the Tea Party movement has a better understanding of the issues facing America today than the average member of Congress. Still, on a three-way congressional generic ballot, the Tea Party candidate comes in third, picking up just 21% of the vote. The Democrat earns 34% support to the Republican's 27% when a Tea Party candidate is on the ballot.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters favor their state suing the federal government to fight the requirement in the new national health care plan that every American must by or obtain health insurance.

Most voters still believe cost is the biggest problem with health care in America today, but most also think passage of the health care plan will drive costs even higher.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters expect Washington to grow more partisan over the next year, which is only one point below the highest level measured since regular tracking of the question began in January 2009.

Separate polling taken just before the House vote approving the health care plan found that just 11% of voters rate Congress' performance as good or excellent, a range it's been hovering in since late 2007. Sixty-four percent (64%) say Congress is doing a poor job.

Not a single House Republican voted for the plan, and 50% of voters say they're less likely to vote this November to reelect any member of Congress who votes for the plan.

Sixty-three percent (63%) think it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated this November. Just 27% say their representative in Congress is the best possible person for the job.

Congress' top leaders are feeling the heat from voters this month, as separate polling shows three of the four - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority leader John Boehner - reaching or matching their highest unfavorable ratings of the past year. Pelosi remains by far the most unpopular congressional leader.

Many Democrats view the passage of the national health care plan as President Obama's greatest achievement yet in office, but voters for the first time are evenly divided in their assessments of the president's leadership.

Many Democrats view the passage of the national health care plan as Obama's greatest achievement yet in office, but voters for the first time are evenly divided in their assessments of the president's leadership. Forty-four percent (44%) rate Obama's leadership skills as good or excellent. But 43% say the president's leadership is poor, the highest such finding since his election in November 2008.

Fifty-three percent (53%) now are at least somewhat concerned that those opposed to Obama’s policies will resort to violence, up 10 points from last September.

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