Rasmussen Poll Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 39%

Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 39%

Monday, October 18, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.AdvertisementElection Day is just two weeks away, and Republican candidates hold a nine-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 17, 2010.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Even more worrisome for Democrats, however, is the finding that among the voters who are most closely following the midterm elections Republicans hold a 55% to 36% lead.

While the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot for over a year, and their lead has run as high as 12 points and as low as three points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 17-point lead.

The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.

Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.

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The Generic Ballot results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings shows Democrats with a 48-46 advantage, while six races remain Toss-Ups (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, West Virginia).

The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 governorships for the GOP, 13 for the Democrats and 10 Toss-Ups (Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont).

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the national health care law, but the number of voters who expect the law to increase the deficit has fallen to the lowest point since its passage by Congress in March.

Nearly three-out-of-four (73%) believe it is at least somewhat likely that the new law will cause some companies to drop health insurance coverage for their employees, including 47% who say it is Very Likely.

With midterm elections bearing down, it’s perhaps no surprise that Democrats like the idea of one party running both Congress and the White House. Republicans and voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties are less thrilled by the idea.

Voters are more cynical than ever about the promises politicians make on the campaign trail.

For the second week in a row, 32% of Likely Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction.

Nearly half the voters in the country now think it is more common for people who are not eligible to vote to be allowed to do so than for eligible voters to be prevented from voting.

Despite assurances from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, most Americans are not confident in the Fed’s ability to combat low inflation and high unemployment rates. Americans also continue to show a lack of confidence in the stability of the U.S. banking industry.

A majority of voters prefer a candidate who tries to cut spending more than one who tries to get his district its fair share of that spending. But then most Americans feel the federal government has too much money and doesn't spend it well.

A plurality of voters nationwide continues to believe the U.S. situation in Afghanistan will get worse in the next six months.

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