Gallup poll: Republicans 'in position to win'

Gallup poll: Republicans 'in position to win'


By ANDY BARR | 10/26/10 7:48 AM EDT

Republicans hold a significant lead among likely voters on a generic congressional ballot heading into the last week of the campaign, according to a new Gallup poll.

Gallup's model of a high-turnout scenario – where more than 40 percent of the electorate votes – shows Republicans leading 52 percent to 43 percent. If fewer than 40 percent of voters turn out, the GOP lead jumps to 14 percentage points, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport said the data shows Republicans remain “in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week's midterm elections.”

The poll shows Democrats only trail Republicans by 4 percentage points among registered voters.

“Republicans have held the upper hand all year in terms of enthusiasm and turnout, giving their candidates clear advantages among likely voters,” Newport wrote. “Democrats appear to have closed that gap a little, particularly when the last four days of Gallup's interviewing are taken into account, and are thus doing slightly better in Gallup's voting estimates.”

The data is based on two polls conducted Oct. 14-17 and Oct. 21-24. For the registered voter sample, 2,746 registered voters were surveyed for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Gallup surveyed 1,989 likely voters, the sample for which comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.



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