Rasmussen Poll - Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 40%, Rep. Gary Peters' Re-election Chances Continue to Sink

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 40%

Monday, September 27, 2010

Republican candidates hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 26, 2010. This is the closest gap between the parties in a month.

Forty-six percent (46%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 40% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points and has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 14-point lead.

Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”

A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, is now available at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.

The Generic Ballot results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings shows Democrats with a 51-45 advantage, while four races remain Toss-Ups (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin).

The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 governorships for the GOP, 13 for the Democrats and 10 Toss-Ups (California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont).

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide favor repeal of the new health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it.

While the headlines have cooled a bit in recent weeks, voters feel more strongly than ever that the federal government is encouraging illegal immigration and that states like Arizona have the answer to the problem.

Democrats tried unsuccessfully last week to push the so-called Dream Act, a measure that puts some illegal immigrants on the path to citizenship, through Congress last week. Most voters believe children brought to this country illegally who complete two years of college or serve in the military should get a chance at U.S. citizenship, but they also agree that allowing this route to citizenship just encourages more illegal immigration.

With the jobless rate inching back up and the economy remaining in the doldrums, most Americans lack confidence in the president’s economic advisers.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters say most members of Congress get reelected not because they go do a good job representing the folks at home but because election rules are rigged to their benefit.

With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains the most unpopular of the four top congressional leaders as she has been since this session of Congress began early last year. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is a close second.

President Obama recently chose Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren to launch the newly created Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, an agency that will further regulate the lending practices of banks, mortgage lenders and credit card companies. But most Americans say increased competition, not more government regulation, will do more to protect borrowers.

Over half know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it's generally due to unfair lending practices.

Americans definitely prefer the free market to government regulation, but they’re less confident in an unbridled marketplace as a response to poverty.

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary describes a Ponzi scheme as “an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks.” Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson made waves with his recent description of the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme, but just 27% voters agree with him.

But 75% of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that most of today’s younger workers will work past the traditional retirement age of 65.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot