Harvard Pilgrim cancels Medicare Advantage plan
By Robert Weisman
Globe Staff / September 28, 2010
Harvard Pilgrim Health Care has notified customers that it will drop its Medicare Advantage health insurance program at the end of the year, forcing 22,000 senior citizens in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine to seek alternative supplemental coverage.
The decision by Wellesley-based Harvard Pilgrim, the state’s second-largest health insurer, was prompted by a freeze in federal reimbursements and a new requirement that insurers offering the kind of product sold by Harvard Pilgrim — a Medicare Advantage private fee for service plan — form a contracted network of doctors who agree to participate for a negotiated amount of money. Under current rules, patients can seek care from any doctor.
“We became concerned by the long-term viability of Medicare Advantage programs in general,’’ said Lynn Bowman, vice president of customer service at Harvard Pilgrim’s office in Quincy. “We know that cuts in Medicare are being used to fund national health care reform. And we also had concerns about our ability to build a network of health care providers that would meet the needs of our seniors.’’
Under Medicare Advantage plans, the federal government pays private health insurers to sell customers over 65 years old enhanced policies, many of which offer prescription drug coverage not covered by standard Medicare. But the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has been seeking to reduce the amount it pays to private insurers for such programs.
Medicare told Harvard Pilgrim to notify customers that its Medicare Advantage program, known as First Seniority Freedom, was being canceled. In a mailing, the insurer was required to list alternative Medicare Advantage plans, including those offered by its competitors.
Harvard Pilgrim in a second mailing this week will urge customers to switch to a new Medicare Supplement plan it will begin offering in October. Unlike Medicare Advantage, which is overseen by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the new Harvard Pilgrim plan will be overseen by the Massachusetts Division of Insurance.
It will be “slightly more expensive’’ than the Medicare Advantage plans, but competitive with supplemental insurance plans offered by rivals such as Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts, the state’s largest health insurer, Bowman said.
She said the Medicare Supplement plan will feature some benefits not covered by the current plan, such as fitness reimbursements, but won’t pay for prescription drugs, which are covered by some versions of the current plan. Instead, seniors can buy separate supplemental drug coverage through a partnership with Coventry Health Care, in Bethesda, Md.
As of yesterday afternoon, about 1,000 customers had sought information about the product change.
Newton resident Robert Gray, 68, a retired computer engineer and technology researcher, said he was disturbed to find out his plan was being discontinued. But he said he prefers to remain with Harvard Pilgrim because he is a longtime customer.
“If there’s a big increase in price or the various options in the new plan don’t seem to be the same . . . we might consider going to another plan,’’ Gray said.
More than 60 percent of senior citizens in Massachusetts are covered only by Medicare, according to Harvard Pilgrim research. Those who buy supplemental insurance are divided roughly evenly between Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement plans.
Robert Weisman can be reached at weisman@globe.com.
http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2010/09/28/harvard_pilgrim_cancels_medicare_advantage_plan/
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
9th. GOP Release: Congressional Debate Showed Peters Dazed, Confused on the Issues, Rocky Provided Solid Solutions to Real Problems
9th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REPUBLICAN PARTY
1ST CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE FINDS PETERS OUT OF TOUCH WITH OAKLAND COUNTY FAMILIES
Peters Seemed Dazed, Confused during Forum, Clung to Pelosi’s Talking Points at Every Turn
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Glenn Clark
Tuesday, September 28, 2010 mi9thgop@gmail.com
TROY, MICHIGAN --- Last night U.S. Representative Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) squared off with Republican challenger Rocky Raczkowski at the 1st and possibly only congressional candidate’s forum for the 9th district seat hosted by the Oakland Press. During the debate in Pontiac, Michigan, Congressman Peters was evasive with answering questions put to him by the Oakland Press staff and by his Republican challenger, and he seemed dazed and confused as to the content of some of the questions. Peters largely stuck to Democratic National Congressional Committee talking points praising big government and defending his votes which exploded the nation’s debt.
Glenn Clark, Chairman of the 9th Congressional District Republican Party, who attended the forum stated the following related to the debate, “It is clear that Rocky Raczkowski won the debate hands down. The forum rules allowed candidates to engage each other. Rocky regularly tried to dive deeper in to various issues to discuss a solution to the economic downturn Oakland County families are experiencing. He clearly rejected a Washington-knows-best perspective that Gary Peters continues to back. In fact, the audience seemed to largely agree with Raczkowski’s market-based concept of moving the nation forward toward recovery.”
Clark went further by saying, “Peters, whenever challenged on any issue, seemed unable to defend his votes in the House. Whether it was his vote for the government expanding and option killing Obamacare healthcare takeover, tax raising Cap and Trade bill, or being a yes vote for the $800 billion failed stimulus, Peters never moved away from his liberal record of massively expanding the power and scope of Washington, D.C. Peters has been more focused on raising taxes on middle class Oakland County families than reducing the staggering unemployment rate in our area. Oakland County voters should fire Gary Peters in November and hire Rocky Raczkowski.”
-30-
Paid for by: 9th District Republican Committee. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
1ST CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE FINDS PETERS OUT OF TOUCH WITH OAKLAND COUNTY FAMILIES
Peters Seemed Dazed, Confused during Forum, Clung to Pelosi’s Talking Points at Every Turn
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Glenn Clark
Tuesday, September 28, 2010 mi9thgop@gmail.com
TROY, MICHIGAN --- Last night U.S. Representative Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) squared off with Republican challenger Rocky Raczkowski at the 1st and possibly only congressional candidate’s forum for the 9th district seat hosted by the Oakland Press. During the debate in Pontiac, Michigan, Congressman Peters was evasive with answering questions put to him by the Oakland Press staff and by his Republican challenger, and he seemed dazed and confused as to the content of some of the questions. Peters largely stuck to Democratic National Congressional Committee talking points praising big government and defending his votes which exploded the nation’s debt.
Glenn Clark, Chairman of the 9th Congressional District Republican Party, who attended the forum stated the following related to the debate, “It is clear that Rocky Raczkowski won the debate hands down. The forum rules allowed candidates to engage each other. Rocky regularly tried to dive deeper in to various issues to discuss a solution to the economic downturn Oakland County families are experiencing. He clearly rejected a Washington-knows-best perspective that Gary Peters continues to back. In fact, the audience seemed to largely agree with Raczkowski’s market-based concept of moving the nation forward toward recovery.”
Clark went further by saying, “Peters, whenever challenged on any issue, seemed unable to defend his votes in the House. Whether it was his vote for the government expanding and option killing Obamacare healthcare takeover, tax raising Cap and Trade bill, or being a yes vote for the $800 billion failed stimulus, Peters never moved away from his liberal record of massively expanding the power and scope of Washington, D.C. Peters has been more focused on raising taxes on middle class Oakland County families than reducing the staggering unemployment rate in our area. Oakland County voters should fire Gary Peters in November and hire Rocky Raczkowski.”
-30-
Paid for by: 9th District Republican Committee. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
Michigan View: 9th District Rundown of Rocky vs. Peters Debate
Last Updated: September 28. 2010
Debate: Rock 'em, sock 'em
Robert Laurie / The Michigan View.com
As anticipated, Monday night’s fight – er, debate - between 9th District Congressional opponents Rocky Raczkowski and Gary Peters was a slugfest.
Republican Raczkowski came out swinging just hours after filing an anti-defamation suit against his opponent for ads accusing him of “fraud” and “theft.” Raczkowski claimed that the Peters ad was filled with “misstatements” that only revealed Peters’ “state of desperation.” Peters shot back that the court battle between Raczkowski and his former business partner would be a long term distraction if he were elected. That may have been as close as the Democrat came to making a solid point all evening – because when it came to the issues, it’s clear why Peters has tried to divert this campaign to personal attacks.
For all the fisticuffs over lawsuits, the event (sponsored and streamed live by The Oakland Press) was issue driven. Rocky presented himself as a candidate of core conservative principles. . . and so did Peters. The first-term Pelosi poodle continued his Extreme Makeover as a pro-business, anti-deficit, state’s rights candidate. But that doesn’t square with his record.
It didn’t work.
Raczkowski came out strong, pointing at Peters as he described a Washington culture that ignores the wishes of the people they represent. “Congress,” Rocky said, “shouldn’t be stressful if you’re listening to your constituents.” Time and again, he used Peters’ voting record against him - Exhibit A in the Democrats’ failure to heed the wishes of the 9th district.
When Peters claimed that he was concerned about deficits and debt, Raczkowski countered that “It’s great to hear people talk about cutting the deficit, when they voted for every package that gave us this deficit.”
“How did you vote on Obamacare? How did you vote on stimulus? How did you vote on cap and trade?” Raczkowski asked. “It’s about trust. People trusted you, you had a chance. You’re in the tightest race of your life, because you lost their trust.”
For his part, Peters tried to portray Raczkowski as a “fringe” tea party extremist (this just days after Peters had used the left-wing extremist slur “teabagger” to describe his opponent). But the attack smacked of desperation, especially as the tea party continues to grow its mainstream influence. When asked if he thought of himself as a tea partier or as a more traditional Republican, Raczkowski said he felt “more closely associated with families of Oakland County. If that's the tea party or the Republican Party, I'm with them.”
Perhaps most embarrassing for Peters was an ill-fated attempt to portray Raczkowski’s support of a fair tax as nothing more than a 23 percent, across-the-board tax increase. In truth, the fair tax is designed to completely replace the current tax system, rather than expand it. Peters came off looking silly at best - at worst, willfully ignorant.
As the evening came to a close, Raczkowski took one last opportunity to paint Peters as a man who had turned his back on his district. “If you had listened to the people of Oakland County,” he said, “you would never have voted for Obamacare, and you wouldn’t have voted for cap and trade.”
“We need someone who will actually listen to Oakland County,” Raczkowski concluded. “Not Nancy Pelosi.”
http://detnews.com/article/20100928/MIVIEW/100928001/Debate--Rock--em--sock--em
Debate: Rock 'em, sock 'em
Robert Laurie / The Michigan View.com
As anticipated, Monday night’s fight – er, debate - between 9th District Congressional opponents Rocky Raczkowski and Gary Peters was a slugfest.
Republican Raczkowski came out swinging just hours after filing an anti-defamation suit against his opponent for ads accusing him of “fraud” and “theft.” Raczkowski claimed that the Peters ad was filled with “misstatements” that only revealed Peters’ “state of desperation.” Peters shot back that the court battle between Raczkowski and his former business partner would be a long term distraction if he were elected. That may have been as close as the Democrat came to making a solid point all evening – because when it came to the issues, it’s clear why Peters has tried to divert this campaign to personal attacks.
For all the fisticuffs over lawsuits, the event (sponsored and streamed live by The Oakland Press) was issue driven. Rocky presented himself as a candidate of core conservative principles. . . and so did Peters. The first-term Pelosi poodle continued his Extreme Makeover as a pro-business, anti-deficit, state’s rights candidate. But that doesn’t square with his record.
It didn’t work.
Raczkowski came out strong, pointing at Peters as he described a Washington culture that ignores the wishes of the people they represent. “Congress,” Rocky said, “shouldn’t be stressful if you’re listening to your constituents.” Time and again, he used Peters’ voting record against him - Exhibit A in the Democrats’ failure to heed the wishes of the 9th district.
When Peters claimed that he was concerned about deficits and debt, Raczkowski countered that “It’s great to hear people talk about cutting the deficit, when they voted for every package that gave us this deficit.”
“How did you vote on Obamacare? How did you vote on stimulus? How did you vote on cap and trade?” Raczkowski asked. “It’s about trust. People trusted you, you had a chance. You’re in the tightest race of your life, because you lost their trust.”
For his part, Peters tried to portray Raczkowski as a “fringe” tea party extremist (this just days after Peters had used the left-wing extremist slur “teabagger” to describe his opponent). But the attack smacked of desperation, especially as the tea party continues to grow its mainstream influence. When asked if he thought of himself as a tea partier or as a more traditional Republican, Raczkowski said he felt “more closely associated with families of Oakland County. If that's the tea party or the Republican Party, I'm with them.”
Perhaps most embarrassing for Peters was an ill-fated attempt to portray Raczkowski’s support of a fair tax as nothing more than a 23 percent, across-the-board tax increase. In truth, the fair tax is designed to completely replace the current tax system, rather than expand it. Peters came off looking silly at best - at worst, willfully ignorant.
As the evening came to a close, Raczkowski took one last opportunity to paint Peters as a man who had turned his back on his district. “If you had listened to the people of Oakland County,” he said, “you would never have voted for Obamacare, and you wouldn’t have voted for cap and trade.”
“We need someone who will actually listen to Oakland County,” Raczkowski concluded. “Not Nancy Pelosi.”
http://detnews.com/article/20100928/MIVIEW/100928001/Debate--Rock--em--sock--em
Monday, September 27, 2010
Rasmussen Poll - Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 40%, Rep. Gary Peters' Re-election Chances Continue to Sink
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 40%
Monday, September 27, 2010
Republican candidates hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 26, 2010. This is the closest gap between the parties in a month.
Forty-six percent (46%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 40% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points and has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 14-point lead.
Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”
A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, is now available at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.
The Generic Ballot results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings shows Democrats with a 51-45 advantage, while four races remain Toss-Ups (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin).
The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 governorships for the GOP, 13 for the Democrats and 10 Toss-Ups (California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont).
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide favor repeal of the new health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it.
While the headlines have cooled a bit in recent weeks, voters feel more strongly than ever that the federal government is encouraging illegal immigration and that states like Arizona have the answer to the problem.
Democrats tried unsuccessfully last week to push the so-called Dream Act, a measure that puts some illegal immigrants on the path to citizenship, through Congress last week. Most voters believe children brought to this country illegally who complete two years of college or serve in the military should get a chance at U.S. citizenship, but they also agree that allowing this route to citizenship just encourages more illegal immigration.
With the jobless rate inching back up and the economy remaining in the doldrums, most Americans lack confidence in the president’s economic advisers.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters say most members of Congress get reelected not because they go do a good job representing the folks at home but because election rules are rigged to their benefit.
With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains the most unpopular of the four top congressional leaders as she has been since this session of Congress began early last year. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is a close second.
President Obama recently chose Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren to launch the newly created Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, an agency that will further regulate the lending practices of banks, mortgage lenders and credit card companies. But most Americans say increased competition, not more government regulation, will do more to protect borrowers.
Over half know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it's generally due to unfair lending practices.
Americans definitely prefer the free market to government regulation, but they’re less confident in an unbridled marketplace as a response to poverty.
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary describes a Ponzi scheme as “an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks.” Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson made waves with his recent description of the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme, but just 27% voters agree with him.
But 75% of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that most of today’s younger workers will work past the traditional retirement age of 65.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Monday, September 27, 2010
Republican candidates hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 26, 2010. This is the closest gap between the parties in a month.
Forty-six percent (46%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 40% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points and has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 14-point lead.
Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”
A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, is now available at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.
The Generic Ballot results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for health care reform, Republicans pulled ahead for good.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings shows Democrats with a 51-45 advantage, while four races remain Toss-Ups (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin).
The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 governorships for the GOP, 13 for the Democrats and 10 Toss-Ups (California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont).
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Likely Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide favor repeal of the new health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it.
While the headlines have cooled a bit in recent weeks, voters feel more strongly than ever that the federal government is encouraging illegal immigration and that states like Arizona have the answer to the problem.
Democrats tried unsuccessfully last week to push the so-called Dream Act, a measure that puts some illegal immigrants on the path to citizenship, through Congress last week. Most voters believe children brought to this country illegally who complete two years of college or serve in the military should get a chance at U.S. citizenship, but they also agree that allowing this route to citizenship just encourages more illegal immigration.
With the jobless rate inching back up and the economy remaining in the doldrums, most Americans lack confidence in the president’s economic advisers.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters say most members of Congress get reelected not because they go do a good job representing the folks at home but because election rules are rigged to their benefit.
With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains the most unpopular of the four top congressional leaders as she has been since this session of Congress began early last year. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is a close second.
President Obama recently chose Harvard law professor Elizabeth Warren to launch the newly created Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, an agency that will further regulate the lending practices of banks, mortgage lenders and credit card companies. But most Americans say increased competition, not more government regulation, will do more to protect borrowers.
Over half know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it's generally due to unfair lending practices.
Americans definitely prefer the free market to government regulation, but they’re less confident in an unbridled marketplace as a response to poverty.
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary describes a Ponzi scheme as “an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and bigger risks.” Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson made waves with his recent description of the Social Security system as a Ponzi scheme, but just 27% voters agree with him.
But 75% of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that most of today’s younger workers will work past the traditional retirement age of 65.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Senator Santorum Back in Oakland County to Stump 4 Rocky @ "It Takes a Family" Fundraiser at the Townsend
Women’s Luncheon – “It Takes A Family” – Birmingham
Special Appearance: Rick Santorum
When: Friday, October 1, from 10:30 AM to 12:30 PM
Where: Townsend Hotel, 100 Townsend St., Birmingham
Cost: $55 donation per person/$80 includes signed copy of his book/$800 reserved table for 10, includes signed book for each guest
RSVP: event.rockyworksforus.com or 248-556-4400
Special Appearance: Rick Santorum
When: Friday, October 1, from 10:30 AM to 12:30 PM
Where: Townsend Hotel, 100 Townsend St., Birmingham
Cost: $55 donation per person/$80 includes signed copy of his book/$800 reserved table for 10, includes signed book for each guest
RSVP: event.rockyworksforus.com or 248-556-4400
Volunteers Needed for Senator Pappageorge's Senior Salute
Dear Friends,
Senator Pappageorge is hosting the Third Annual Southeast Oakland County Senior Salute on Monday, October 4th. This is a fantastic event that draws over 800 seniors from the Senator's district to enjoy a day completely planned for them and I am proud to assist the Senator with this wonderful Salute. The event includes 50 plus booths, flu shots, entertainment, free hot lunch, door prizes, and much more.
In order to make the Senior Salute run smoothly, we are asking for volunteers to help make this a success for a third year in a row. Details regarding the Senior Salute are as follows:
WHAT: SOUTHEAST OAKLAND COUNTY SENIOR SALUTE
HOST: STATE SENATOR JOHN PAPPAGEORGE
WHERE: ROYAL OAK FARMER'S MARKET, 316 EAST 11 MILE ROAD
WHEN: MONDAY, OCTOBER 4th, VOLUNTEER ARRIVAL TIME IS 9:30 am
EVENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 10:00 am to 2:00 pm
RSVP: Contact Corinne Khederian at cvkhed@aol.com or 248-644-5274 or
517-488-7866 / SeniorSalute@gmail.com
If you are able to volunteer all or part of your day, Senator Pappageorge would be most appreciative as will all the seniors attending.
Thank you,
Corinne Khederian for the
Third Annual Southeast Oakland
County Senior Salute
Senator Pappageorge is hosting the Third Annual Southeast Oakland County Senior Salute on Monday, October 4th. This is a fantastic event that draws over 800 seniors from the Senator's district to enjoy a day completely planned for them and I am proud to assist the Senator with this wonderful Salute. The event includes 50 plus booths, flu shots, entertainment, free hot lunch, door prizes, and much more.
In order to make the Senior Salute run smoothly, we are asking for volunteers to help make this a success for a third year in a row. Details regarding the Senior Salute are as follows:
WHAT: SOUTHEAST OAKLAND COUNTY SENIOR SALUTE
HOST: STATE SENATOR JOHN PAPPAGEORGE
WHERE: ROYAL OAK FARMER'S MARKET, 316 EAST 11 MILE ROAD
WHEN: MONDAY, OCTOBER 4th, VOLUNTEER ARRIVAL TIME IS 9:30 am
EVENT IS SCHEDULED FOR 10:00 am to 2:00 pm
RSVP: Contact Corinne Khederian at cvkhed@aol.com or 248-644-5274 or
517-488-7866 / SeniorSalute@gmail.com
If you are able to volunteer all or part of your day, Senator Pappageorge would be most appreciative as will all the seniors attending.
Thank you,
Corinne Khederian for the
Third Annual Southeast Oakland
County Senior Salute
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Detroit News: Obama/Pelosi/Peters stimulus didn't save the nation from depression but they spent $800 billion
Nolan Finley, Detroit News
Stimulus didn't save the nation from depression
Wait a minute -- economists are now saying the Great Recession ended in June of 2009, when the economy began growing again.
But President Barack Obama is defending the $787 billion stimulus package, which failed to deliver the promised reduction in unemployment, by claiming it kept the economy from falling into a depression.
And yet, according to some economists, the recession was over before the stimulus dollars were spent.
We've been had, folks. Nearly $800 billion of our money was spent to end a recession that was already over. The massive spending didn't put Americans back to work. So all we end up with is a hugely expanded government and a gigantic debt that will be repaid with higher taxes on either ourselves or our grandchildren
Worse, all that spending likely made conditions worse and prolonged our misery because it sucked money out of the private sector, and the policy-making that surrounded it gave job creators the jitters.
"The stimulus had no effect at all," says Harry Veryser, a University of Detroit Mercy economics professor and author of an upcoming book on the collapse.
At least it has had no effect on employment, the measure everyday Americans use to determine when a recession has ended.
Gary Wolfram, an economist at Hillsdale College, contends employment is lagging because fears that the deficit will lead to higher taxes, as well as the uncertainty about the costs of Obamacare, have kept investors sitting on more than $3 trillion private dollars that ought to be going into job creation.
"As long as government creates this high level of uncertainty about the future, employment will not rebound," he says.
Wolfram adds that the money was squandered on a wish list of politically motivated projects and programs, and not strategically targeted to impact job creation in the hardest hit states, including Michigan.
"If we'd cut corporate income taxes instead, there would have been an immediate reaction from the economy," he says.
The spending also did little to shore up the housing market, which typically leads an economic comeback.
But Obama and his Democratic cohorts in Congress couldn't demonize corporations for destroying the economy, and then hand them a tax break. And if they had spent the money on a broad reduction in tax rates for individuals, they couldn't have steered the stimulus money toward their political supporters.
So they spent and spent, without a clear strategy of how that spending would impact employment in job-starved places like Michigan. They were more concerned with achieving their ideological wish list than they were in putting Americans back to work.
They acted against all evidence that this version of counter-cyclical spending would produce any better results than it had in the past.
The pinpointing of the recession's end debunks Obama's desperate defense of the stimulus. It ought to also spark a debate on whether a different approach would have produced better results.
"Had we done nothing, we would have been better off than we are now," Wolfram contends.
Doing nothing wasn't an option, given the condition of the economy.
But what Obama did -- spend $800 billion in a single minded pursuit of his far-left agenda -- has produced nothing but a might angry electorate.
Nolan Finley is editorial page editor of The News. Reach him at nfinley@detnews.com or (313) 222-2064. Read more at detnews.com/finley and watch him at 8:30 p.m. Fridays on "Am I Right?" on Detroit Public TV, Channel 56.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100923/OPINION03/9230338/1008/OPINION01/Stimulus-didn-t-save-the-nation-from-depression#ixzz10bNinGeG
Stimulus didn't save the nation from depression
Wait a minute -- economists are now saying the Great Recession ended in June of 2009, when the economy began growing again.
But President Barack Obama is defending the $787 billion stimulus package, which failed to deliver the promised reduction in unemployment, by claiming it kept the economy from falling into a depression.
And yet, according to some economists, the recession was over before the stimulus dollars were spent.
We've been had, folks. Nearly $800 billion of our money was spent to end a recession that was already over. The massive spending didn't put Americans back to work. So all we end up with is a hugely expanded government and a gigantic debt that will be repaid with higher taxes on either ourselves or our grandchildren
Worse, all that spending likely made conditions worse and prolonged our misery because it sucked money out of the private sector, and the policy-making that surrounded it gave job creators the jitters.
"The stimulus had no effect at all," says Harry Veryser, a University of Detroit Mercy economics professor and author of an upcoming book on the collapse.
At least it has had no effect on employment, the measure everyday Americans use to determine when a recession has ended.
Gary Wolfram, an economist at Hillsdale College, contends employment is lagging because fears that the deficit will lead to higher taxes, as well as the uncertainty about the costs of Obamacare, have kept investors sitting on more than $3 trillion private dollars that ought to be going into job creation.
"As long as government creates this high level of uncertainty about the future, employment will not rebound," he says.
Wolfram adds that the money was squandered on a wish list of politically motivated projects and programs, and not strategically targeted to impact job creation in the hardest hit states, including Michigan.
"If we'd cut corporate income taxes instead, there would have been an immediate reaction from the economy," he says.
The spending also did little to shore up the housing market, which typically leads an economic comeback.
But Obama and his Democratic cohorts in Congress couldn't demonize corporations for destroying the economy, and then hand them a tax break. And if they had spent the money on a broad reduction in tax rates for individuals, they couldn't have steered the stimulus money toward their political supporters.
So they spent and spent, without a clear strategy of how that spending would impact employment in job-starved places like Michigan. They were more concerned with achieving their ideological wish list than they were in putting Americans back to work.
They acted against all evidence that this version of counter-cyclical spending would produce any better results than it had in the past.
The pinpointing of the recession's end debunks Obama's desperate defense of the stimulus. It ought to also spark a debate on whether a different approach would have produced better results.
"Had we done nothing, we would have been better off than we are now," Wolfram contends.
Doing nothing wasn't an option, given the condition of the economy.
But what Obama did -- spend $800 billion in a single minded pursuit of his far-left agenda -- has produced nothing but a might angry electorate.
Nolan Finley is editorial page editor of The News. Reach him at nfinley@detnews.com or (313) 222-2064. Read more at detnews.com/finley and watch him at 8:30 p.m. Fridays on "Am I Right?" on Detroit Public TV, Channel 56.
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100923/OPINION03/9230338/1008/OPINION01/Stimulus-didn-t-save-the-nation-from-depression#ixzz10bNinGeG
Obama/Nancy Pelosi/Gary Peters Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse 'Black Swan' Author Says - Peters Voted Yes!
Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse, `Black Swan' Author Taleb Says
By Frederic Tomesco - Sep 25, 2010 10:36 AM ET
U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration weakened the country’s economy by seeking to foster growth instead of paying down the federal debt, said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan.”
“Obama did exactly the opposite of what should have been done,” Taleb said yesterday in Montreal in a speech as part of Canada’s Salon Speakers series. “He surrounded himself with people who exacerbated the problem. You have a person who has cancer and instead of removing the cancer, you give him tranquilizers. When you give tranquilizers to a cancer patient, they feel better but the cancer gets worse.”
Today, Taleb said, “total debt is higher than it was in 2008 and unemployment is worse.”
Obama this month proposed a package of $180 billion in business tax breaks and infrastructure outlays to boost spending and job growth. That would come on top of the $814 billion stimulus measure enacted last year. The U.S. government’s total outstanding debt is about $13.5 trillion, according to Treasury figures.
Obama, 49, inherited what the National Bureau of Economic Research said this week was the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression. Even after the stimulus measure and other government actions, the U.S. unemployment rate is 9.6 percent.
Governments globally need to cut debt and avoid bailing out struggling companies because that’s the only way they can shield their economies from the negative consequences of erroneous budget forecasts, Taleb said.
Errant Forecasts
“Today there is a dependency on people who have never been able to forecast anything,” Taleb said. “What kind of system is insulated from forecasting errors? A system where debts are low and companies are allowed to die young when they are fragile. Companies always end up dying one day anyway.”
Taleb, a native of Lebanon who gave his speech in French to an audience of Quebec business people, said Canada’s fiscal situation makes the country a safer investment than its southern neighbor.
Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the country’s finance department said in March. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.
“I am bullish on Canada,” he told the audience. “I prefer Canada to the U.S. or even Europe.”
Mortgage Interest
Canada’s economy also benefits from the fact that homeowners, unlike their U.S. neighbors, can’t take mortgage interest as a tax deduction, Taleb said. That removes the incentive to take on too much debt, he said.
“The first thing to do if you want to solve the mortgage problem in the U.S. is to stop making these interest payments deductible,” he said. “Has someone dared to talk about this in Washington? No, because the U.S. homebuilders’ lobby is hyperactive and doesn’t want people to talk about this.”
Taleb also criticized banks and securities firms, saying they don’t adequately warn clients of the risks they run when they invest their retirement savings on the stock market.
‘Have Fun’
“People should use financial markets to have fun, but not as a depository of value,” Taleb said. “Investors have been deceived. People were told that markets go up regularly, but if you look at the last 10 years that’s not been the case. The risks are always greater than what people are told.”
Asked by an audience member if returns such as those posted by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett -- who amassed the world’s third-biggest personal fortune through decades of stock picks and takeovers -- are the product of luck or talent, Taleb said both played a part.
If given a choice between investing with Buffett and billionaire investor George Soros, Taleb also said he would probably pick the latter.
“I am not saying Buffett isn’t as good as Soros,” he said. “I am saying that the probability Soros’s returns come from randomness is much smaller because he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, he did arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions. Buffett followed a strategy to buy companies that had a certain earnings profile, and it worked for him. There is a lot more luck involved in this strategy.”
Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion correctly betting against the British pound.
Taleb’s 2007 best-seller, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” argues that history is littered with rare, high-impact events. The black-swan theory stems from the ancient misconception that all swans were white.
A former trader, Taleb teaches risk engineering at New York University and advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based fund that bets on extreme market moves.
To contact the reporter for this story: Frederic Tomesco in Montreal at tomesco@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-25/-black-swan-author-taleb-says-obama-s-stimulus-made-economic-crisis-worse.html
By Frederic Tomesco - Sep 25, 2010 10:36 AM ET
U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration weakened the country’s economy by seeking to foster growth instead of paying down the federal debt, said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan.”
“Obama did exactly the opposite of what should have been done,” Taleb said yesterday in Montreal in a speech as part of Canada’s Salon Speakers series. “He surrounded himself with people who exacerbated the problem. You have a person who has cancer and instead of removing the cancer, you give him tranquilizers. When you give tranquilizers to a cancer patient, they feel better but the cancer gets worse.”
Today, Taleb said, “total debt is higher than it was in 2008 and unemployment is worse.”
Obama this month proposed a package of $180 billion in business tax breaks and infrastructure outlays to boost spending and job growth. That would come on top of the $814 billion stimulus measure enacted last year. The U.S. government’s total outstanding debt is about $13.5 trillion, according to Treasury figures.
Obama, 49, inherited what the National Bureau of Economic Research said this week was the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression. Even after the stimulus measure and other government actions, the U.S. unemployment rate is 9.6 percent.
Governments globally need to cut debt and avoid bailing out struggling companies because that’s the only way they can shield their economies from the negative consequences of erroneous budget forecasts, Taleb said.
Errant Forecasts
“Today there is a dependency on people who have never been able to forecast anything,” Taleb said. “What kind of system is insulated from forecasting errors? A system where debts are low and companies are allowed to die young when they are fragile. Companies always end up dying one day anyway.”
Taleb, a native of Lebanon who gave his speech in French to an audience of Quebec business people, said Canada’s fiscal situation makes the country a safer investment than its southern neighbor.
Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the country’s finance department said in March. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.
“I am bullish on Canada,” he told the audience. “I prefer Canada to the U.S. or even Europe.”
Mortgage Interest
Canada’s economy also benefits from the fact that homeowners, unlike their U.S. neighbors, can’t take mortgage interest as a tax deduction, Taleb said. That removes the incentive to take on too much debt, he said.
“The first thing to do if you want to solve the mortgage problem in the U.S. is to stop making these interest payments deductible,” he said. “Has someone dared to talk about this in Washington? No, because the U.S. homebuilders’ lobby is hyperactive and doesn’t want people to talk about this.”
Taleb also criticized banks and securities firms, saying they don’t adequately warn clients of the risks they run when they invest their retirement savings on the stock market.
‘Have Fun’
“People should use financial markets to have fun, but not as a depository of value,” Taleb said. “Investors have been deceived. People were told that markets go up regularly, but if you look at the last 10 years that’s not been the case. The risks are always greater than what people are told.”
Asked by an audience member if returns such as those posted by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Officer Warren Buffett -- who amassed the world’s third-biggest personal fortune through decades of stock picks and takeovers -- are the product of luck or talent, Taleb said both played a part.
If given a choice between investing with Buffett and billionaire investor George Soros, Taleb also said he would probably pick the latter.
“I am not saying Buffett isn’t as good as Soros,” he said. “I am saying that the probability Soros’s returns come from randomness is much smaller because he did almost everything: he bought currencies, he sold currencies, he did arbitrages. He made a lot more decisions. Buffett followed a strategy to buy companies that had a certain earnings profile, and it worked for him. There is a lot more luck involved in this strategy.”
Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $1 billion correctly betting against the British pound.
Taleb’s 2007 best-seller, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” argues that history is littered with rare, high-impact events. The black-swan theory stems from the ancient misconception that all swans were white.
A former trader, Taleb teaches risk engineering at New York University and advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based fund that bets on extreme market moves.
To contact the reporter for this story: Frederic Tomesco in Montreal at tomesco@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Scanlan at dscanlan@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-25/-black-swan-author-taleb-says-obama-s-stimulus-made-economic-crisis-worse.html
Desperate Liberal U.S. Rep. Gary Peters Attacks Opponent with Sexual Slur in Front of Room of Female Voters
Last Updated: September 24. 2010 1:00AM
Peters slur: Rocky 'is a teabagger'
Henry Payne / The Michigan View.com
At a recent candidates' forum in Bloomfield Hills, Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters used the slur 'teabagger" when attacking his congressional opponent, Republican Rocky Raczkowski, according to sources familiar with the event, including the Raczkowski campaign. "Teabagger" (or "teabagging") is a crude term used against Tea Party members that takes its name from an oral sex act, and has been widely condemned as offensive even as some Democrats continue to use it. Anderson Cooper famously used the term on CNN earlier this year and later apologized.
The two candidates for the 9th district congressional seat appeared together at an event held by the Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority at the Bloomfield Township Library on Sept. 19. Alpha Kappa -- a black women's group -- is historically friendly territory for Democrats, and sources say Peters was comfortable -- perhaps too comfortable -- in disparaging his Republican opponent.
"My friend here is a teabagger," Peters is purported to have said at one juncture, pointing in Raczkowski's direction. A Peters staffer at the event reportedly froze at the term's use. Repeated calls to the Peters campaign to confirm or deny the term's use were not returned.
The term is particularly offensive to women, and two Michigan tea party officers -- both women -- were furious upon hearing of Peters' use of the term.
Wendy Day, founder of Common Sense in Government and also an active tea party organizer, said that "for a U.S. congressman to show such poor judgment shows his lack of character."
"I did not think (Peters) was so dishonorable that he would use that term," said Janice Daniels, a tea party organizer and resident of the 9th district in Oakland County, who gasped when she heard the term.
Daniels decried the use of the "offensive term" at "a time when we need the conversation in the public arena raised to a higher level."
Indeed, Peters himself called out Rocky earlier in the campaign for allegedly questioning whether President Obama is a natural born U.S. citizen and "joining the birther movement." The "birthers" are a discredited fringe on the Right, and Peters used as evidence an audiotape alleging that Raczkowski demanded to see Obama's birth certificate.
The tape is simply too garbled to know the truth of the comment, and Raczkowski adamantly denied that he had made the comment. Still, it was Peters' claim to the high ground in this campaign and put both campaigns on notice that words matter.
It is ironic then, that it is Peters who seems to have slipped. Coupled with his personal attacks on Raczkowski's business ethics this week, the "teabagger" slur is evidence that the Peters' campaign has given up the high ground for the gutter.
Henry Payne is editor of The Michigan View.com
Peters slur: Rocky 'is a teabagger'
Henry Payne / The Michigan View.com
At a recent candidates' forum in Bloomfield Hills, Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters used the slur 'teabagger" when attacking his congressional opponent, Republican Rocky Raczkowski, according to sources familiar with the event, including the Raczkowski campaign. "Teabagger" (or "teabagging") is a crude term used against Tea Party members that takes its name from an oral sex act, and has been widely condemned as offensive even as some Democrats continue to use it. Anderson Cooper famously used the term on CNN earlier this year and later apologized.
The two candidates for the 9th district congressional seat appeared together at an event held by the Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority at the Bloomfield Township Library on Sept. 19. Alpha Kappa -- a black women's group -- is historically friendly territory for Democrats, and sources say Peters was comfortable -- perhaps too comfortable -- in disparaging his Republican opponent.
"My friend here is a teabagger," Peters is purported to have said at one juncture, pointing in Raczkowski's direction. A Peters staffer at the event reportedly froze at the term's use. Repeated calls to the Peters campaign to confirm or deny the term's use were not returned.
The term is particularly offensive to women, and two Michigan tea party officers -- both women -- were furious upon hearing of Peters' use of the term.
Wendy Day, founder of Common Sense in Government and also an active tea party organizer, said that "for a U.S. congressman to show such poor judgment shows his lack of character."
"I did not think (Peters) was so dishonorable that he would use that term," said Janice Daniels, a tea party organizer and resident of the 9th district in Oakland County, who gasped when she heard the term.
Daniels decried the use of the "offensive term" at "a time when we need the conversation in the public arena raised to a higher level."
Indeed, Peters himself called out Rocky earlier in the campaign for allegedly questioning whether President Obama is a natural born U.S. citizen and "joining the birther movement." The "birthers" are a discredited fringe on the Right, and Peters used as evidence an audiotape alleging that Raczkowski demanded to see Obama's birth certificate.
The tape is simply too garbled to know the truth of the comment, and Raczkowski adamantly denied that he had made the comment. Still, it was Peters' claim to the high ground in this campaign and put both campaigns on notice that words matter.
It is ironic then, that it is Peters who seems to have slipped. Coupled with his personal attacks on Raczkowski's business ethics this week, the "teabagger" slur is evidence that the Peters' campaign has given up the high ground for the gutter.
Henry Payne is editor of The Michigan View.com
Friday, September 24, 2010
'Truth Squad' Exposes Peters' Attack Ad for Lies, Half Truths Against GOP Challenger
Peters ad sparks protest by Raczkowski supporters
Published: Thursday, September 23, 2010
By Shaun Byron, For the Daily Tribune
Rocky Raczkowski supporters protest outside the Berkley Public Library. The campaign for Rep. Gary Peters debuted a new TV ad, “Truth,” which talks about a pending $6 million fraud case against Peters’ congressional opponent, Rocky Raczkowski. Tim Thompson/For the Daily Tribune
BERKLEY — A television advertisement looking to focus attention on a $6.48 million lawsuit and criminal allegations against GOP challenger Rocky Raczkowski is attracting plenty of attention from both sides of the political fence.
A new television advertisement called “Trust” was presented to the media by U.S. Rep. Gary Peters’ campaign manager Dan Farough and Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer at a news conference Thursday at the Berkley Public Library on Coolidge Highway.
Raczkowski seeks to unseat Peters, a first-term incumbent, in the Nov. 2 general election.
The advertisement gives attention to ongoing litigation involving former business partners who accuse Raczkowski of bilking them out of millions of dollars from a series of outdoor rock concerts that were held while he was chief operating officer of Star Tickets.
Farough said the timing of the advertisement has nothing to do with recent reports of Raczkowski leading in the polls against Peters.
An automated poll conducted Sept. 13 of 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District has Raczkowski with about a 5 percent lead.
Farough said the validity of the results is questionable because it was automated, which raises the margin of error, and the poll used a small sample size.
Outside of the library were a number of Raczkowski supporters protesting the advertisement.
Sue Berstein of Farmington Hills and Glenn Clark of Troy led the group of citizens — calling themselves the Oakland County Truth Squad. Berstein and Clark both cited Peters’ voting record, saying he’s a part of the political machine with a 95 percent history of voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on issues of health care reform and cap and trade.
“If he’s going to run, he ought to run on his record, not on a smear campaign,” Berstein said.
“This is a frivolous lawsuit and if Gary Peters wants to use half-truths and innuendo as far as the character of his opponent, that needs to get out to voters of this district,” Clark added.
Listed as plaintiffs in the lawsuit, which was filed Feb. 11, 2009, in South Dakota, are Rozone Productions LLC, RTR Illuminated Investors 3 LLC and Robert Rosen. The lawsuit will go to trial this spring.
In an affidavit of Rozeon Productions Chief Executive Officer David Rosen and filed in Texas, the company hired Star Tickets while promoting a series of outdoor concerts in South Dakota.
In the document, he accuses Raczkowski of taking possession of the boxes containing ticket stubs following the events and destroying it as evidence to steal a portion of the profits by underreporting attendance.
Rosen said his company was told attendance was estimated by Star Tickets to be about 25,000 while he contends it was much greater.
The lawsuit has been an ongoing issue for Raczkowski and was brought up during the primary election.
Brewer, the state Democratic Party chairman, said that as an attorney, the case is not a routine dispute between business partners, citing allegations of fraud and conspiracy.
“If this lawsuit was frivolous or without merit, it would be dismissed by now,” he said.
http://www.dailytribune.com/articles/2010/09/23/news/doc4c9c1b8ebec2a999494897.txt
Published: Thursday, September 23, 2010
By Shaun Byron, For the Daily Tribune
Rocky Raczkowski supporters protest outside the Berkley Public Library. The campaign for Rep. Gary Peters debuted a new TV ad, “Truth,” which talks about a pending $6 million fraud case against Peters’ congressional opponent, Rocky Raczkowski. Tim Thompson/For the Daily Tribune
BERKLEY — A television advertisement looking to focus attention on a $6.48 million lawsuit and criminal allegations against GOP challenger Rocky Raczkowski is attracting plenty of attention from both sides of the political fence.
A new television advertisement called “Trust” was presented to the media by U.S. Rep. Gary Peters’ campaign manager Dan Farough and Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer at a news conference Thursday at the Berkley Public Library on Coolidge Highway.
Raczkowski seeks to unseat Peters, a first-term incumbent, in the Nov. 2 general election.
The advertisement gives attention to ongoing litigation involving former business partners who accuse Raczkowski of bilking them out of millions of dollars from a series of outdoor rock concerts that were held while he was chief operating officer of Star Tickets.
Farough said the timing of the advertisement has nothing to do with recent reports of Raczkowski leading in the polls against Peters.
An automated poll conducted Sept. 13 of 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District has Raczkowski with about a 5 percent lead.
Farough said the validity of the results is questionable because it was automated, which raises the margin of error, and the poll used a small sample size.
Outside of the library were a number of Raczkowski supporters protesting the advertisement.
Sue Berstein of Farmington Hills and Glenn Clark of Troy led the group of citizens — calling themselves the Oakland County Truth Squad. Berstein and Clark both cited Peters’ voting record, saying he’s a part of the political machine with a 95 percent history of voting with Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on issues of health care reform and cap and trade.
“If he’s going to run, he ought to run on his record, not on a smear campaign,” Berstein said.
“This is a frivolous lawsuit and if Gary Peters wants to use half-truths and innuendo as far as the character of his opponent, that needs to get out to voters of this district,” Clark added.
Listed as plaintiffs in the lawsuit, which was filed Feb. 11, 2009, in South Dakota, are Rozone Productions LLC, RTR Illuminated Investors 3 LLC and Robert Rosen. The lawsuit will go to trial this spring.
In an affidavit of Rozeon Productions Chief Executive Officer David Rosen and filed in Texas, the company hired Star Tickets while promoting a series of outdoor concerts in South Dakota.
In the document, he accuses Raczkowski of taking possession of the boxes containing ticket stubs following the events and destroying it as evidence to steal a portion of the profits by underreporting attendance.
Rosen said his company was told attendance was estimated by Star Tickets to be about 25,000 while he contends it was much greater.
The lawsuit has been an ongoing issue for Raczkowski and was brought up during the primary election.
Brewer, the state Democratic Party chairman, said that as an attorney, the case is not a routine dispute between business partners, citing allegations of fraud and conspiracy.
“If this lawsuit was frivolous or without merit, it would be dismissed by now,” he said.
http://www.dailytribune.com/articles/2010/09/23/news/doc4c9c1b8ebec2a999494897.txt
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Get Involved Today: 6 GOP Action Centers Need You!
Get Involved Today: 6 GOP Action Centers Need You!
Get involved today to send a message to Washington & Lansing: No more big government tax-and-spending on our watch!
Make phone calls or talk to voters door-to-door. Pick up a lawn sign. Place a bumper sticker on your car. We need you today!
Visit any of these six Republican action centers today:
Bloomfield Fix Michigan Center
42651 Woodward Avenue
Director: Bobby Talbot
btalbot@migopvictory.org
517-862-8321
Troy Fix Michigan Center
671 E. Big Beaver Suite 101
Director: Addison Pierce
apierce@migopvictory.org
517-862-8300
Clarkston Fix Michigan Center
5770 S. Main St., Suite D
Director: Mike Compagnoni
mike@migopvictory.org
517-214-2801
Novi Fix Michigan Center
41700 Gardenbrook Suite 202
Director: Ann-Marie Gostomski
agostomski@migopvictory.org
517-348-9490
Rocky for Congress Campaign HQ
34122 Woodward Avenue, Birmingham, Michigan
Director: Jessica Corbett
jessica@rockyworksforus.com
248-556-4400
Rick Snyder for Governor Oakland County Campaign HQ
43249 Woodward Avenue, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
Director: Stu Foster
stu@rickformichigan.com
734-389-5880
Get involved today to send a message to Washington & Lansing: No more big government tax-and-spending on our watch!
Make phone calls or talk to voters door-to-door. Pick up a lawn sign. Place a bumper sticker on your car. We need you today!
Visit any of these six Republican action centers today:
Bloomfield Fix Michigan Center
42651 Woodward Avenue
Director: Bobby Talbot
btalbot@migopvictory.org
517-862-8321
Troy Fix Michigan Center
671 E. Big Beaver Suite 101
Director: Addison Pierce
apierce@migopvictory.org
517-862-8300
Clarkston Fix Michigan Center
5770 S. Main St., Suite D
Director: Mike Compagnoni
mike@migopvictory.org
517-214-2801
Novi Fix Michigan Center
41700 Gardenbrook Suite 202
Director: Ann-Marie Gostomski
agostomski@migopvictory.org
517-348-9490
Rocky for Congress Campaign HQ
34122 Woodward Avenue, Birmingham, Michigan
Director: Jessica Corbett
jessica@rockyworksforus.com
248-556-4400
Rick Snyder for Governor Oakland County Campaign HQ
43249 Woodward Avenue, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
Director: Stu Foster
stu@rickformichigan.com
734-389-5880
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
STATEMENT FROM RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE ON THE SIX MONTH ANNIVERSARY OF OBAMACARE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 22, 2010
View This Statement At GOP.com
STATEMENT FROM RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE ON THE SIX MONTH ANNIVERSARY OF OBAMACARE
WASHINGTON – Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele released the following statement today:
“The six month anniversary of ObamaCare will be a lonely one for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. The President’s plan was unpopular when it was passed in March and today the wholesale takeover of the American health care system is undeniably radioactive. Democrats who were promised a winning campaign issue are instead running ads against ObamaCare in hopes that they can distance themselves from their Party’s $2.5 trillion mistake. Even the best public relations campaign cannot paper over the long list of broken promises sold to the American people.
“Rather than work across the aisle, Democrats chose to pursue a health care takeover that has resulted in higher premiums for families, more taxes for businesses and reduced benefits for our seniors and children. In less than two months, voters will prove that representative government is still alive and Democrats will be held accountable for their reckless behavior while in office.”
###
Republican National Committee | 310 First Street, SE | Washington, D.C. 20003
p: 202.863.8500 | f: 202.863.8820 | e: info@gop.com
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
310 First Street, SE - Washington, D.C. 20003 - (202) 863-8500
www.gop.com
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee
September 22, 2010
View This Statement At GOP.com
STATEMENT FROM RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE ON THE SIX MONTH ANNIVERSARY OF OBAMACARE
WASHINGTON – Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele released the following statement today:
“The six month anniversary of ObamaCare will be a lonely one for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. The President’s plan was unpopular when it was passed in March and today the wholesale takeover of the American health care system is undeniably radioactive. Democrats who were promised a winning campaign issue are instead running ads against ObamaCare in hopes that they can distance themselves from their Party’s $2.5 trillion mistake. Even the best public relations campaign cannot paper over the long list of broken promises sold to the American people.
“Rather than work across the aisle, Democrats chose to pursue a health care takeover that has resulted in higher premiums for families, more taxes for businesses and reduced benefits for our seniors and children. In less than two months, voters will prove that representative government is still alive and Democrats will be held accountable for their reckless behavior while in office.”
###
Republican National Committee | 310 First Street, SE | Washington, D.C. 20003
p: 202.863.8500 | f: 202.863.8820 | e: info@gop.com
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
310 First Street, SE - Washington, D.C. 20003 - (202) 863-8500
www.gop.com
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee
55% of Americans said Obama’s overall economic plans have made things worse, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters supported same failed policies via roll call votes!
Most Americans Want All Bush Tax Cuts Extended
By John D. McKinnon
A new CNBC poll gives a boost to Republicans – along with some Democrats – who want to maintain the Bush-era tax breaks.
In the new poll released this week, 55% said that “increasing taxes on any Americans will slow the economy and kill jobs,” CNBC said. Only 40% said the Bush-era tax cuts should be canceled for higher earners, as President Barack Obama advocates. Obama and congressional Democratic leaders want to allow the Bush-era breaks to expire for families earning more than $250,000 beginning next year. But they’ve run into opposition from Republicans as well as a growing number of centrist Democrats.
Other recent polls generally have showed significant public support for maintaining current tax levels on higher earners. But it’s usually fallen short of an outright majority.
The CNBC poll also showed significant erosion of support for placing more regulation on business. Eighteen months ago, 47% said increased regulation would be good for the economy. Now, only 34% say so.
In addition, 55% of Americans said Obama’s overall economic plans have made things worse so far.
Still, while his policies didn’t fare so well, Obama’s job-performance approval hasn’t changed much recently. His approval rating stands at 47%, with 49% disapproving of his performance. That’s basically unchanged from July’s 48%-49%, and down a bit from April’s 50%-48%.
Elections 2010
http://ht.ly/2I7kS
By John D. McKinnon
A new CNBC poll gives a boost to Republicans – along with some Democrats – who want to maintain the Bush-era tax breaks.
In the new poll released this week, 55% said that “increasing taxes on any Americans will slow the economy and kill jobs,” CNBC said. Only 40% said the Bush-era tax cuts should be canceled for higher earners, as President Barack Obama advocates. Obama and congressional Democratic leaders want to allow the Bush-era breaks to expire for families earning more than $250,000 beginning next year. But they’ve run into opposition from Republicans as well as a growing number of centrist Democrats.
Other recent polls generally have showed significant public support for maintaining current tax levels on higher earners. But it’s usually fallen short of an outright majority.
The CNBC poll also showed significant erosion of support for placing more regulation on business. Eighteen months ago, 47% said increased regulation would be good for the economy. Now, only 34% say so.
In addition, 55% of Americans said Obama’s overall economic plans have made things worse so far.
Still, while his policies didn’t fare so well, Obama’s job-performance approval hasn’t changed much recently. His approval rating stands at 47%, with 49% disapproving of his performance. That’s basically unchanged from July’s 48%-49%, and down a bit from April’s 50%-48%.
Elections 2010
http://ht.ly/2I7kS
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman: Hard Work Puts GOP in Line to Win
Hard work puts GOP in line to win
This is no accident. While it was impossible in January 2009 to predict how the political environment would shape up by September — and most observers at the time scoffed at the idea of a Republican majority — it is now clear that our hard work over the past 20 months has put us in a position to win in November.
Republican candidates have been contrasting their pro-growth positions with the failed policies of their Democratic opponents, which have led to higher unemployment and record spending. Democrats have responded with what appears to be their only message: They have more campaign money.
Unfortunately for them, that cash advantage has subsided to the point where they can no longer rely on financial superiority in the race for the House. Less than a year ago, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enjoyed a 6-1 cash-on-hand advantage over the National Republican Campaign Committee. The GOP closed that gap to 2-1 over the summer.
Now, after outraising the DCCC for four straight months, we narrowed the gap to only 1.6-1 — an alarmingly small margin for a majority party that has pinned its hopes in November on its financial resources.
We have the pieces in place to accomplish our goal: retiring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Now, we must use the next several weeks to execute it.
But assuming that the majority is already within our grasp would be a fatal mistake. The campaign’s final weeks could be the difference between a Republican majority that could stop the Obama-Pelosi agenda and start putting Americans back to work and just more of the same policies that have led the country down the road of economic and fiscal peril.
The sun has finally set on Recovery Summer. Welcome to the fall.
Texas Rep. Pete Sessions is chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42508_Page2.html#ixzz10Gk6Wy5i
This is no accident. While it was impossible in January 2009 to predict how the political environment would shape up by September — and most observers at the time scoffed at the idea of a Republican majority — it is now clear that our hard work over the past 20 months has put us in a position to win in November.
Republican candidates have been contrasting their pro-growth positions with the failed policies of their Democratic opponents, which have led to higher unemployment and record spending. Democrats have responded with what appears to be their only message: They have more campaign money.
Unfortunately for them, that cash advantage has subsided to the point where they can no longer rely on financial superiority in the race for the House. Less than a year ago, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee enjoyed a 6-1 cash-on-hand advantage over the National Republican Campaign Committee. The GOP closed that gap to 2-1 over the summer.
Now, after outraising the DCCC for four straight months, we narrowed the gap to only 1.6-1 — an alarmingly small margin for a majority party that has pinned its hopes in November on its financial resources.
We have the pieces in place to accomplish our goal: retiring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Now, we must use the next several weeks to execute it.
But assuming that the majority is already within our grasp would be a fatal mistake. The campaign’s final weeks could be the difference between a Republican majority that could stop the Obama-Pelosi agenda and start putting Americans back to work and just more of the same policies that have led the country down the road of economic and fiscal peril.
The sun has finally set on Recovery Summer. Welcome to the fall.
Texas Rep. Pete Sessions is chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42508_Page2.html#ixzz10Gk6Wy5i
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
AP Poll shows dismal verdict for the Dems’ healthcare takeover scheme
AP Poll: Health care law making us muddle-minded
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and TREVOR TOMPSON (AP) – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON — Six months after President Barack Obama signed the landmark health care law, the nation still doesn't really know what's in it.
More than half of Americans mistakenly believe the overhaul will raise taxes for most people this year, an Associated Press poll finds. But that would be true only if most people were devoted to indoor tanning, which got hit with a sales tax.
Many who wanted the health care system to be overhauled don't realize that some provisions they cared about actually did make it in. And about a quarter of supporters don't understand that something hardly anyone wanted didn't make it: They mistakenly say the law will set up panels of bureaucrats to make decisions about people's care — what critics labeled "death panels."
The uncertainty and confusion amount to a dismal verdict for the Obama administration's campaign to win over public opinion. Before the final votes in Congress, Obama personally assured wavering Democrats he'd take the case to the American people after the law passed. But it hasn't worked. And in the final stretch before the midterm elections Republicans are united by their call for repeal.
"I'm insecure about a document that was as big as the health care bill and wonder if anybody understands exactly what's in it," said Diann Kelley, 61, a retiree from Marietta, Ga., who says she's "somewhat opposed" to the law. The AP poll was conducted by Stanford University with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
"The main fear is the cost," explained Kelley. "I'm not sure that we can afford to take on something quite as massive as the health care reform with the economy the way it is."
It's not that Kelley has a negative opinion about everything in the law. The prohibition on health insurance companies denying coverage to people because of pre-existing medical conditions "is really a fine idea," she said.
The poll's questions included a true-or-false quiz on 19 items, some of which are in the law and others not. People were also asked how confident they were about their answers.
For the most part, majorities picked the right answers. But a sizable number also got things wrong. And right or wrong, people were unsure of their answers. Two-thirds or more were uncertain about their responses on eight of nine core provisions of the legislation.
Analysis of the findings indicated a split as far as the impact of accurate knowledge, between Democrats and independents on one side and Republicans on the other.
Accurate knowledge of the law made no difference in overwhelming opposition from Republicans.
Michael Cagnina, 33, a web developer from Powhatan, Va., summed it up: "It just doesn't make me feel comfortable that the government is going to give people free health care but ultimately the government's money is my money."
However, for Democrats and independents, the more accurate knowledge people had of the bill, the more they liked it.
"Among Democrats and independents, the lack of knowledge is suppressing public approval of the bill," said Stanford political science professor Jon Krosnick, who directed the university's participation. "Although the president and others have done a great deal to educate people about what is in this bill, the process has not been particularly successful."
The White House is staging an event Wednesday to mark the six-month anniversary of Obama signing the bill. The president and top administration officials will be joined by people from around the country who are already benefiting from such popular provisions as allowing adult children to remain on their parents' insurance until they reach 26.
Will it make a difference?
The poll shows Obama has yet to find the right wavelength for communicating even information that's relatively straightforward. One question stood out as an example:
People were asked whether the Congressional Budget Office had ruled that the legislation would probably increase the government's debt, or whether the nonpartisan budget analysts found that the health law would reduce red ink. (Correct answer: CBO found it would reduce the federal deficit over time.)
But 81 percent in the survey got the wrong answer, including a majorities of both supporters and opponents — even though Obama seldom misses a chance to remind audiences of CBO's favorable report.
Overall, three out of ten in the poll said they favored the law, while four in ten said they were opposed. Another 30 percent were neutral. The findings on support and opposition differ from another recent AP poll, but the two surveys cannot be compared because they were drawn up and carried out differently.
The other survey, an AP-GfK political poll, found 41 percent supporting the bill and 46 percent opposing it, with only 12 percent neutral.
The new survey was conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 7, and involved interviews with 1,251 randomly chosen adults nationwide. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks, which first chose people for the study using randomly generated telephone numbers and home addresses. Once people were selected to participate, they were interviewed online. Participants without Internet access were provided it for free.
Stanford University's participation in the project was made possible by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
Associated Press writer Natasha Metzler, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gSXIViw_RWvU3uweKkhKfhAVGgqgD9ICH3DG2
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and TREVOR TOMPSON (AP) – 1 hour ago
WASHINGTON — Six months after President Barack Obama signed the landmark health care law, the nation still doesn't really know what's in it.
More than half of Americans mistakenly believe the overhaul will raise taxes for most people this year, an Associated Press poll finds. But that would be true only if most people were devoted to indoor tanning, which got hit with a sales tax.
Many who wanted the health care system to be overhauled don't realize that some provisions they cared about actually did make it in. And about a quarter of supporters don't understand that something hardly anyone wanted didn't make it: They mistakenly say the law will set up panels of bureaucrats to make decisions about people's care — what critics labeled "death panels."
The uncertainty and confusion amount to a dismal verdict for the Obama administration's campaign to win over public opinion. Before the final votes in Congress, Obama personally assured wavering Democrats he'd take the case to the American people after the law passed. But it hasn't worked. And in the final stretch before the midterm elections Republicans are united by their call for repeal.
"I'm insecure about a document that was as big as the health care bill and wonder if anybody understands exactly what's in it," said Diann Kelley, 61, a retiree from Marietta, Ga., who says she's "somewhat opposed" to the law. The AP poll was conducted by Stanford University with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
"The main fear is the cost," explained Kelley. "I'm not sure that we can afford to take on something quite as massive as the health care reform with the economy the way it is."
It's not that Kelley has a negative opinion about everything in the law. The prohibition on health insurance companies denying coverage to people because of pre-existing medical conditions "is really a fine idea," she said.
The poll's questions included a true-or-false quiz on 19 items, some of which are in the law and others not. People were also asked how confident they were about their answers.
For the most part, majorities picked the right answers. But a sizable number also got things wrong. And right or wrong, people were unsure of their answers. Two-thirds or more were uncertain about their responses on eight of nine core provisions of the legislation.
Analysis of the findings indicated a split as far as the impact of accurate knowledge, between Democrats and independents on one side and Republicans on the other.
Accurate knowledge of the law made no difference in overwhelming opposition from Republicans.
Michael Cagnina, 33, a web developer from Powhatan, Va., summed it up: "It just doesn't make me feel comfortable that the government is going to give people free health care but ultimately the government's money is my money."
However, for Democrats and independents, the more accurate knowledge people had of the bill, the more they liked it.
"Among Democrats and independents, the lack of knowledge is suppressing public approval of the bill," said Stanford political science professor Jon Krosnick, who directed the university's participation. "Although the president and others have done a great deal to educate people about what is in this bill, the process has not been particularly successful."
The White House is staging an event Wednesday to mark the six-month anniversary of Obama signing the bill. The president and top administration officials will be joined by people from around the country who are already benefiting from such popular provisions as allowing adult children to remain on their parents' insurance until they reach 26.
Will it make a difference?
The poll shows Obama has yet to find the right wavelength for communicating even information that's relatively straightforward. One question stood out as an example:
People were asked whether the Congressional Budget Office had ruled that the legislation would probably increase the government's debt, or whether the nonpartisan budget analysts found that the health law would reduce red ink. (Correct answer: CBO found it would reduce the federal deficit over time.)
But 81 percent in the survey got the wrong answer, including a majorities of both supporters and opponents — even though Obama seldom misses a chance to remind audiences of CBO's favorable report.
Overall, three out of ten in the poll said they favored the law, while four in ten said they were opposed. Another 30 percent were neutral. The findings on support and opposition differ from another recent AP poll, but the two surveys cannot be compared because they were drawn up and carried out differently.
The other survey, an AP-GfK political poll, found 41 percent supporting the bill and 46 percent opposing it, with only 12 percent neutral.
The new survey was conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 7, and involved interviews with 1,251 randomly chosen adults nationwide. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks, which first chose people for the study using randomly generated telephone numbers and home addresses. Once people were selected to participate, they were interviewed online. Participants without Internet access were provided it for free.
Stanford University's participation in the project was made possible by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
Associated Press writer Natasha Metzler, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gSXIViw_RWvU3uweKkhKfhAVGgqgD9ICH3DG2
Monday, September 20, 2010
Rasmussen Poll: Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 38%
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 38%
Monday, September 20, 2010
Republican candidates now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 19, 2010.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points and has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a near two-to-one lead.
Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Monday, September 20, 2010
Republican candidates now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, September 19, 2010.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points and has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a near two-to-one lead.
Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis, and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
Rasmussen Poll: 61% favor repeal of ObamaCare
Health Care Law
61% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law
Monday, September 20, 2010
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely U.S. Voters now at least somewhat favor repeal of the new national health care law, including 50% who Strongly Favor it. That’s up eight points from a week ago and the highest level of opposition measured since late May.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 33% of Likely Voters oppose repeal. Since the passage of the bill in late March, a majority of voters have consistently favored repeal of the new law, with support ranging from a low of 53% to a high of 63%.
Only 33% say the health care plan will be good for the country, the lowest level measured since late July. Fifty-six percent (56%) disagree and believe the new law will be bad for the United States.
On both questions, there is a large divide between mainstream voters and the Political Class. While 74% of Mainstream voters favor repeal, 74% of the Political Class are opposed. Likewise, most Mainstream voters (71%) feel the health care law will hurt the country, but 68% of the Political Class believe the law will be beneficial.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 18-19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of all voters nationwide say the health care law will increase the federal deficit. Just 11% feel the new law will reduce the deficit, while another 18% say it will have no impact. These findings show little change since late March.
A strong majority (60%) feel that under the new law, the cost of health care will go up. Only 13% say costs will go down, and 18% say they will stay about the same. These findings, too, have remained fairly consistent since passage of the bill.
Forty-five percent (45%) of Americans expect to spend more for health care a year from now than they are spending right now.
Only 20% say the quality of health care will get better under the new law. Just over half (53%) feel the quality of health care will get worse. Twenty-one percent (21%) expect it to say the same.
While debate continues to rage in the country over the national health care bill, Americans are only slightly more confident that the private sector has a better chance than the federal government of maintaining quality care and controlling costs.
Recent polling finds that 40% of Americans nationwide say they have chosen not to fill a prescription because it cost too much. Thirty-nine percent (39%) also say that they have postponed a medical procedure or checkup to save money in the past six months.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law
61% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law
Monday, September 20, 2010
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely U.S. Voters now at least somewhat favor repeal of the new national health care law, including 50% who Strongly Favor it. That’s up eight points from a week ago and the highest level of opposition measured since late May.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 33% of Likely Voters oppose repeal. Since the passage of the bill in late March, a majority of voters have consistently favored repeal of the new law, with support ranging from a low of 53% to a high of 63%.
Only 33% say the health care plan will be good for the country, the lowest level measured since late July. Fifty-six percent (56%) disagree and believe the new law will be bad for the United States.
On both questions, there is a large divide between mainstream voters and the Political Class. While 74% of Mainstream voters favor repeal, 74% of the Political Class are opposed. Likewise, most Mainstream voters (71%) feel the health care law will hurt the country, but 68% of the Political Class believe the law will be beneficial.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 18-19, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of all voters nationwide say the health care law will increase the federal deficit. Just 11% feel the new law will reduce the deficit, while another 18% say it will have no impact. These findings show little change since late March.
A strong majority (60%) feel that under the new law, the cost of health care will go up. Only 13% say costs will go down, and 18% say they will stay about the same. These findings, too, have remained fairly consistent since passage of the bill.
Forty-five percent (45%) of Americans expect to spend more for health care a year from now than they are spending right now.
Only 20% say the quality of health care will get better under the new law. Just over half (53%) feel the quality of health care will get worse. Twenty-one percent (21%) expect it to say the same.
While debate continues to rage in the country over the national health care bill, Americans are only slightly more confident that the private sector has a better chance than the federal government of maintaining quality care and controlling costs.
Recent polling finds that 40% of Americans nationwide say they have chosen not to fill a prescription because it cost too much. Thirty-nine percent (39%) also say that they have postponed a medical procedure or checkup to save money in the past six months.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law
Poll: Independents dislike both parties, but leaning Republican
Poll: Independents dislike both parties, but leaning Republican
By Chris Moody - The Daily Caller | Published: 2:44 PM 09/20/2010 | Updated: 3:38 PM 09/20/2010
By Chris Moody - The Daily Caller
Chris Moody is a political reporter for the Daily Caller from San Diego, California. Before joining the Daily Caller, Moody was the Manager of New Media at a think tank in Washington DC, a freelance writer and a commercial fisherman in Alaska. He is currently a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University and lives in downtown Washington DC.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite holding a generally unfavorable view of Republicans, most independent voters are leaning toward the GOP, a new poll of likely independent voters finds.
While 54 percent of those polled said they view the GOP unfavorably, half are leaning Republican in the weeks before the election and 52 percent said that Republicans represent their views more than Democrats. Only a quarter said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and less than one third said they hold views that are in line with the Party of the president.
The survey was conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Douglas E. Schoen, and commissioned by Independent Women’s Voice, a conservative-leaning non-profit organization.
“Those who say they plan to vote for a Republican candidate do so to vote against Obama and his agenda, not because they trust the Republicans,” said Schoen, who advised President Bill Clinton throughout the 1990s.
The primary issues that concern independents, the survey found, were increases in government spending (88 percent) high taxation (83 percent) and “the growing size and scope” of the federal government (79 percent).
That is not to say that independents have high hopes that Republicans will perform better on those issues. Less than one in ten said they thought Republicans would cut taxes and spending.
“Both parties are seen as big spenders and big taxers,” Schoen said. “The Republicans are really not seen as fiscal conservatives.”
It is imperative then for Republicans who are relying on independents to swing a tight race to focus on cutting taxes and government spending, the study’s commissioner concluded.
“If Republicans fail to convince voters that they are committed to scaling back government and cutting taxes and spending, these independents may become so disgusted that they simply stay home rather than vote,” Schoen wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece co-authored with IWV President and CEO Heather R. Higgins. “They are increasingly trending Republican, but they will remain that way only if the GOP offers them the agenda they so clearly demand.”
The results that suggest independents are angry at both parties appears to represent sentiments held by most Americans. In an Associated Press poll released last week, 60 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Democrats and 68 percent disapproved of congressional Republicans.
“When you see numbers like this — and I am a Democrat…that is as close in a poll to a Clarion call as you are ever going to get,” Schoen said. “And to ignore that, as I think the administration and Democrats have, is to create political peril.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/20/poll-independents-dislike-both-parties-but-leaning-republican/#ixzz106QKu4rj
By Chris Moody - The Daily Caller | Published: 2:44 PM 09/20/2010 | Updated: 3:38 PM 09/20/2010
By Chris Moody - The Daily Caller
Chris Moody is a political reporter for the Daily Caller from San Diego, California. Before joining the Daily Caller, Moody was the Manager of New Media at a think tank in Washington DC, a freelance writer and a commercial fisherman in Alaska. He is currently a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University and lives in downtown Washington DC.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite holding a generally unfavorable view of Republicans, most independent voters are leaning toward the GOP, a new poll of likely independent voters finds.
While 54 percent of those polled said they view the GOP unfavorably, half are leaning Republican in the weeks before the election and 52 percent said that Republicans represent their views more than Democrats. Only a quarter said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and less than one third said they hold views that are in line with the Party of the president.
The survey was conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Douglas E. Schoen, and commissioned by Independent Women’s Voice, a conservative-leaning non-profit organization.
“Those who say they plan to vote for a Republican candidate do so to vote against Obama and his agenda, not because they trust the Republicans,” said Schoen, who advised President Bill Clinton throughout the 1990s.
The primary issues that concern independents, the survey found, were increases in government spending (88 percent) high taxation (83 percent) and “the growing size and scope” of the federal government (79 percent).
That is not to say that independents have high hopes that Republicans will perform better on those issues. Less than one in ten said they thought Republicans would cut taxes and spending.
“Both parties are seen as big spenders and big taxers,” Schoen said. “The Republicans are really not seen as fiscal conservatives.”
It is imperative then for Republicans who are relying on independents to swing a tight race to focus on cutting taxes and government spending, the study’s commissioner concluded.
“If Republicans fail to convince voters that they are committed to scaling back government and cutting taxes and spending, these independents may become so disgusted that they simply stay home rather than vote,” Schoen wrote in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece co-authored with IWV President and CEO Heather R. Higgins. “They are increasingly trending Republican, but they will remain that way only if the GOP offers them the agenda they so clearly demand.”
The results that suggest independents are angry at both parties appears to represent sentiments held by most Americans. In an Associated Press poll released last week, 60 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Democrats and 68 percent disapproved of congressional Republicans.
“When you see numbers like this — and I am a Democrat…that is as close in a poll to a Clarion call as you are ever going to get,” Schoen said. “And to ignore that, as I think the administration and Democrats have, is to create political peril.”
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/09/20/poll-independents-dislike-both-parties-but-leaning-republican/#ixzz106QKu4rj
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
OAKLAND PRESS: U.S. Rep. Peters trails in latest tracking poll
U.S. Rep. Peters trails in latest tracking poll
Published: Wednesday, September 15, 2010
By CHARLES CRUMM
Of The Oakland Press
Republican challenger Rocky Raczkowski has the lead over first-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Gary Peters in the 9th congressional district, an independent weekly tracking poll released Wednesday indicates.
The automated poll conducted Sept. 13 of 300 likely voters in the 9th congressional district and 400 likely voters statewide has Raczkowski at 45 percent and Peters at 40.7 percent with 10.3 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted by The Rossman Group in partnership with Team TelCom.
Kelly Rossman, CEO and founder of the Lansing-based Rossman Group, says Raczkowski is benefiting from the sour mood of voters towards Congress.
"It's no secret that Democrats have been gaining ground in Oakland County over the past decade," Rossman said. "But Congressman Peters has some work to do if he wants to mak esure the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country doesn't sweep him out of office after just one term."
The weekly poll also looked at the races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general.
In the race for governor, likely voters polled gave Republican businessman Rick Snyder a 51.3 percent to 31.8 percent lead over Lansing mayor and Democrat Virg Bernero with 17 percent undecided.
Voters polled also indicated they preferred Republican Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson over Democrat Jocelyn Benson for secretary of state by a 42.3 percent to 28 percent margin with 29.8 percent undecided.
In the attorney general's race, Midland Republican Bill Schuette led Democrat David Leyton of Genesee County 40.3 percent to 31 percent with 28.8 percent undecided.
Contact staff writer Charles Crumm at 248-745-4649, charlie.crumm@oakpress.com or follow him on Twitter @crummc. More election information is at 2010electioninoaklandcounty.blogspot.com.
Published: Wednesday, September 15, 2010
By CHARLES CRUMM
Of The Oakland Press
Republican challenger Rocky Raczkowski has the lead over first-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Gary Peters in the 9th congressional district, an independent weekly tracking poll released Wednesday indicates.
The automated poll conducted Sept. 13 of 300 likely voters in the 9th congressional district and 400 likely voters statewide has Raczkowski at 45 percent and Peters at 40.7 percent with 10.3 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted by The Rossman Group in partnership with Team TelCom.
Kelly Rossman, CEO and founder of the Lansing-based Rossman Group, says Raczkowski is benefiting from the sour mood of voters towards Congress.
"It's no secret that Democrats have been gaining ground in Oakland County over the past decade," Rossman said. "But Congressman Peters has some work to do if he wants to mak esure the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country doesn't sweep him out of office after just one term."
The weekly poll also looked at the races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general.
In the race for governor, likely voters polled gave Republican businessman Rick Snyder a 51.3 percent to 31.8 percent lead over Lansing mayor and Democrat Virg Bernero with 17 percent undecided.
Voters polled also indicated they preferred Republican Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson over Democrat Jocelyn Benson for secretary of state by a 42.3 percent to 28 percent margin with 29.8 percent undecided.
In the attorney general's race, Midland Republican Bill Schuette led Democrat David Leyton of Genesee County 40.3 percent to 31 percent with 28.8 percent undecided.
Contact staff writer Charles Crumm at 248-745-4649, charlie.crumm@oakpress.com or follow him on Twitter @crummc. More election information is at 2010electioninoaklandcounty.blogspot.com.
Independent Poll Shows Rocky Leading Peters by Almost 5 Points, Trouble Brewing for Left-Wing Incumbent
Independent Poll Shows Rocky Leading Peters in the 9th Congressional
September 15, 2010 • The Rossman Group
LANSING, Mich. — A new independent poll shows Republican challenger Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski with a slight lead over freshman Democratic Congressman Gary Peters in the 9th Congressional District. Raczkowski received 45 percent to Peters’ 40.7 percent, with 10.3 percent undecided and the other three candidates splitting the rest. Peters defeated longtime incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg in 2008 in the district that covers the bulk of Oakland County in Southeast Michigan.
The 9th Congressional District race is one of three in Michigan that both national Republicans and Democrats have their eyes on to determine the Majority in the House
“It’s no secret that Democrats have been gaining ground in Oakland County over the past decade,” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group, who conducted the survey in partnership with Team TelCom. “But Congressman Peters has some work to do if he wants to make sure the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country doesn’t sweep him out of office after just one term.”
The results from the congressional district poll are as follows:
Michigan 9th Congressional District
` Gary Peters (D) – 40.7 percent
Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski (R) – 45 percent
Campbell (GRN) – 2.7 percent
Goodman (LIB)– 0.3 percent
Grey (IND) – 1 percent
Kuofie (IND) – 0 percent
Undecided – 10.3 percent
Contact: Kelly Rossman-McKinney, 517-487-9320 (office), 517-749-0529 (cell), krossman@rossmangroup.com
The automated poll, conducted September 13, surveyed 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District and an additional 400 likely voters throughout the state on the statewide candidate races. The margin of error was +/- 5.6 percent. The results of the poll can be found below. For charts showing the movement over the past several weeks, please visit the "cool stuff" section of this website.
* Methodology: This Rossman Group/Team TelCom Weekly Survey was an automated statewide telephone poll of 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District and 400 likely voters across the state for the statewide races. The poll was conducted on September 13, 2010. Participation was stratified based on past voter behavior and census data. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they would definitely vote, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2010 General Election. The margin of error is plus/minus 5.6 percent. All numbers are rounded and may exceed 100%. Attribution: For attribution purposes, please recognize both organizations that partnered in the poll: The Rossman Group and Team TelCom.
http://www.rossmangroup.com/newsitem.php?newsid=492
September 15, 2010 • The Rossman Group
LANSING, Mich. — A new independent poll shows Republican challenger Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski with a slight lead over freshman Democratic Congressman Gary Peters in the 9th Congressional District. Raczkowski received 45 percent to Peters’ 40.7 percent, with 10.3 percent undecided and the other three candidates splitting the rest. Peters defeated longtime incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg in 2008 in the district that covers the bulk of Oakland County in Southeast Michigan.
The 9th Congressional District race is one of three in Michigan that both national Republicans and Democrats have their eyes on to determine the Majority in the House
“It’s no secret that Democrats have been gaining ground in Oakland County over the past decade,” said Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group, who conducted the survey in partnership with Team TelCom. “But Congressman Peters has some work to do if he wants to make sure the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the country doesn’t sweep him out of office after just one term.”
The results from the congressional district poll are as follows:
Michigan 9th Congressional District
` Gary Peters (D) – 40.7 percent
Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski (R) – 45 percent
Campbell (GRN) – 2.7 percent
Goodman (LIB)– 0.3 percent
Grey (IND) – 1 percent
Kuofie (IND) – 0 percent
Undecided – 10.3 percent
Contact: Kelly Rossman-McKinney, 517-487-9320 (office), 517-749-0529 (cell), krossman@rossmangroup.com
The automated poll, conducted September 13, surveyed 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District and an additional 400 likely voters throughout the state on the statewide candidate races. The margin of error was +/- 5.6 percent. The results of the poll can be found below. For charts showing the movement over the past several weeks, please visit the "cool stuff" section of this website.
* Methodology: This Rossman Group/Team TelCom Weekly Survey was an automated statewide telephone poll of 300 likely voters in the 9th Congressional District and 400 likely voters across the state for the statewide races. The poll was conducted on September 13, 2010. Participation was stratified based on past voter behavior and census data. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they would definitely vote, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the November 2010 General Election. The margin of error is plus/minus 5.6 percent. All numbers are rounded and may exceed 100%. Attribution: For attribution purposes, please recognize both organizations that partnered in the poll: The Rossman Group and Team TelCom.
http://www.rossmangroup.com/newsitem.php?newsid=492
Monday, September 13, 2010
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE LAUNCHES FIRE PELOSI BUS TOUR WEBSITE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
September 13, 2010
CONTACT: Press Office
202-863-8614
View This Statement At GOP.com
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE LAUNCHES FIRE PELOSI BUS TOUR WEBSITE
WASHINGTON – The Republican National Committee (RNC) today announced the launch of the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour website, www.FirePelosiBus.com. The website will allow visitors to easily follow The Fire Pelosi Bus as it crisscrosses the country to visit major cities, targeted districts, and rural communities to spread the message that it is time for Republicans to retake the House of Representatives and fire Nancy Pelosi.
FirePelosiBus.com will be updated daily with photos, videos, and blog posts from the road, as well as visitor submitted testimonials from grassroots supporters across the nation. RNC Chairman Michael Steele will be joined by Republican candidates, state legislators, activists, and volunteers, all working to elect Republicans and stand up against the tax-and-spend agenda of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama. Additionally, the site will link directly to candidate homepages and provide a constant stream of Facebook, Twitter and blog updates to ensure that Republican supporters are plugged-in with the latest news from the campaign trail.
The Fire Pelosi Bus will roll through all 48 states in the Continental U.S., making stops at RNC Victory Centers, State Party Headquarters, and other local events and sites. The mission of the bus tour is to get-out-the-vote for Republican candidates in key districts, energize supporters heading into the final days of the election, and bring the Republican message of fiscal responsibility and limited government directly to Main Street. The bus will be emblazoned with the simple phrase, “Need a Job? Fire Pelosi!”
“The RNC is excited to get out of Washington, DC and hit the campaign trail with our top-notch candidates and dedicated supporters,” said RNC Chairman Michael Steele. “Their ideas and energy are the reason that Republicans will take back control of the House and Senate and help lead our nation back to economic prosperity and fiscal responsibility. The next six weeks will be entirely devoted to firing Nancy Pelosi, standing up to the Democrat’s big-government agenda, and diving into the trenches to do the hard work of turning out the vote and winning races up and down the ballot.”
FirePelosiBus.com will feature several sections to allow visitors to easily follow the bus across the country and find events near their hometowns. In addition, the “GenerationNOW” page will encourage students, recent graduates, and young professionals to submit their own YouTube videos about why they want to fire Nancy Pelosi and move America in a different direction.
“The failed policies of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid have led to high unemployment, skyrocketing debt, and an unprecedented expansion of the federal government. The RNC’s Fire Pelosi Bus Tour will take the Republican message to local communities feeling the brunt of Democrat failures,” said Chairman Steele. “The American people know that this economy is not moving in the right direction fast enough and more unchecked spending and higher taxes aren’t the solution, they are the problem.”
In addition to the RNC’s focus on regaining control of the House, the tour will also boost Republican candidates in critical U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and local state races. The RNC is devoted to building a solid foundation of Republican leaders all across America. Supporting up-and-coming Republican candidates that are breaking new ground is a critical component to building a stronger GOP for years.
During the span of six weeks between September 15 and the election, the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour will visit over 100 different cities, big and small, and travel more than 14,000 miles from coast to coast. The tour will help build support for local Republican Parties and candidates, as well efficiently use online fundraising tools to maximize grassroots donations. The FirePelosiBus.com website will have a page where visitors can donate to the RNC. To date, the RNC has over 300 staffers on the ground, over 300 RNC Victory offices open and more than 11 million voter contacts have been made.
###
Republican National Committee | 310 First Street, SE | Washington, D.C. 20003
p: 202.863.8500 | f: 202.863.8820 | e: info@gop.com
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
310 First Street, SE - Washington, D.C. 20003 - (202) 863-8500
www.gop.com
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee
September 13, 2010
CONTACT: Press Office
202-863-8614
View This Statement At GOP.com
REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE LAUNCHES FIRE PELOSI BUS TOUR WEBSITE
WASHINGTON – The Republican National Committee (RNC) today announced the launch of the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour website, www.FirePelosiBus.com. The website will allow visitors to easily follow The Fire Pelosi Bus as it crisscrosses the country to visit major cities, targeted districts, and rural communities to spread the message that it is time for Republicans to retake the House of Representatives and fire Nancy Pelosi.
FirePelosiBus.com will be updated daily with photos, videos, and blog posts from the road, as well as visitor submitted testimonials from grassroots supporters across the nation. RNC Chairman Michael Steele will be joined by Republican candidates, state legislators, activists, and volunteers, all working to elect Republicans and stand up against the tax-and-spend agenda of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama. Additionally, the site will link directly to candidate homepages and provide a constant stream of Facebook, Twitter and blog updates to ensure that Republican supporters are plugged-in with the latest news from the campaign trail.
The Fire Pelosi Bus will roll through all 48 states in the Continental U.S., making stops at RNC Victory Centers, State Party Headquarters, and other local events and sites. The mission of the bus tour is to get-out-the-vote for Republican candidates in key districts, energize supporters heading into the final days of the election, and bring the Republican message of fiscal responsibility and limited government directly to Main Street. The bus will be emblazoned with the simple phrase, “Need a Job? Fire Pelosi!”
“The RNC is excited to get out of Washington, DC and hit the campaign trail with our top-notch candidates and dedicated supporters,” said RNC Chairman Michael Steele. “Their ideas and energy are the reason that Republicans will take back control of the House and Senate and help lead our nation back to economic prosperity and fiscal responsibility. The next six weeks will be entirely devoted to firing Nancy Pelosi, standing up to the Democrat’s big-government agenda, and diving into the trenches to do the hard work of turning out the vote and winning races up and down the ballot.”
FirePelosiBus.com will feature several sections to allow visitors to easily follow the bus across the country and find events near their hometowns. In addition, the “GenerationNOW” page will encourage students, recent graduates, and young professionals to submit their own YouTube videos about why they want to fire Nancy Pelosi and move America in a different direction.
“The failed policies of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid have led to high unemployment, skyrocketing debt, and an unprecedented expansion of the federal government. The RNC’s Fire Pelosi Bus Tour will take the Republican message to local communities feeling the brunt of Democrat failures,” said Chairman Steele. “The American people know that this economy is not moving in the right direction fast enough and more unchecked spending and higher taxes aren’t the solution, they are the problem.”
In addition to the RNC’s focus on regaining control of the House, the tour will also boost Republican candidates in critical U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and local state races. The RNC is devoted to building a solid foundation of Republican leaders all across America. Supporting up-and-coming Republican candidates that are breaking new ground is a critical component to building a stronger GOP for years.
During the span of six weeks between September 15 and the election, the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour will visit over 100 different cities, big and small, and travel more than 14,000 miles from coast to coast. The tour will help build support for local Republican Parties and candidates, as well efficiently use online fundraising tools to maximize grassroots donations. The FirePelosiBus.com website will have a page where visitors can donate to the RNC. To date, the RNC has over 300 staffers on the ground, over 300 RNC Victory offices open and more than 11 million voter contacts have been made.
###
Republican National Committee | 310 First Street, SE | Washington, D.C. 20003
p: 202.863.8500 | f: 202.863.8820 | e: info@gop.com
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
310 First Street, SE - Washington, D.C. 20003 - (202) 863-8500
www.gop.com
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Obama Added More to Nat'l Debt in First 19 Months Than All Presidents from Washington Through Reagan Combined, Says Gov’t Data - Gary Peters Voted Yes
Obama Added More to National Debt in First 19 Months Than All Presidents from Washington Through Reagan Combined, Says Gov’t Data
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
By Terence P. Jeffrey, Editor-in-Chief
President Barack Obama speaks in Seattle on Tuesday, August 17, 2010. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)(CNSNews.com) - In the first 19 months of the Obama administration, the federal debt held by the public increased by $2.5260 trillion, which is more than the cumulative total of the national debt held by the public that was amassed by all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan.
The U.S. Treasury Department divides the federal debt into two categories. One is “debt held by the public,” which includes U.S. government securities owned by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments and other entities outside the federal government itself. The other is “intragovernmental” debt, which includes I.O.U.s the federal government gives to itself when, for example, the Treasury borrows money out of the Social Security “trust fund” to pay for expenses other than Social Security.
At the end of fiscal year 1989, which ended eight months after President Reagan left office, the total federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That means all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan had accumulated only that much publicly held debt on behalf of American taxpayers. That is $335.3 billion less than the $2.5260 trillion that was added to the federal debt held by the public just between Jan. 20, 2009, when President Obama was inaugurated, and Aug. 20, 2010, the 19-month anniversary of Obama's inauguration.
By contrast, President Reagan was sworn into office on Jan. 20, 1981 and left office eight years later on Jan. 20, 1989. At the end of fiscal 1980, four months before Reagan was inaugurated, the federal debt held by the public was $711.9 billion, according to CBO. At the end of fiscal 1989, eight months after Reagan left office, the federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion. That means that in the nine-fiscal-year period of 1980-89--which included all of Reagan’s eight years in office--the federal debt held by the public increased $1.4788 trillion. That is in excess of a trillion dollars less than the $2.5260 increase in the debt held by the public during Obama’s first 19 months.
When President Barack Obama took the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2009, the total federal debt held by the public stood at 6.3073 trillion, according to the Bureau of the Public Debt, a division of the U.S. Treasury Department. As of Aug. 20, 2010, after the first nineteen months of President Obama’s 48-month term, the total federal debt held by the public had grown to a total of $8.8333 trillion, an increase of $2.5260 trillion.
In just the last four months (May through August), according to the CBO, the Obama administration has run cumulative deficits of $464 billion, more than the $458 billion deficit the Bush administration ran through the entirety of fiscal 2008.
The CBO predicted this week that the annual budget deficit for fiscal 2010, which ends on the last day of this month, will exceed $1.3 trillion.
The first two fiscal years in which Obama has served will see the two biggest federal deficits as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product since the end of World War II.
“CBO currently estimates that the deficit for 2010 will be about $70 billion below last year’s total but will still exceed $1.3 trillion,” said the CBO’s monthly budget review for September, which was released yesterday. “Relative to the size of the economy, this year’s deficit is expected to be the second-largest shortfall in the past 65 years: At 9.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), that deficit will be exceeded only by last year’s deficit of 9.9 percent of GDP.”
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/72404
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
By Terence P. Jeffrey, Editor-in-Chief
President Barack Obama speaks in Seattle on Tuesday, August 17, 2010. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)(CNSNews.com) - In the first 19 months of the Obama administration, the federal debt held by the public increased by $2.5260 trillion, which is more than the cumulative total of the national debt held by the public that was amassed by all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan.
The U.S. Treasury Department divides the federal debt into two categories. One is “debt held by the public,” which includes U.S. government securities owned by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, foreign governments and other entities outside the federal government itself. The other is “intragovernmental” debt, which includes I.O.U.s the federal government gives to itself when, for example, the Treasury borrows money out of the Social Security “trust fund” to pay for expenses other than Social Security.
At the end of fiscal year 1989, which ended eight months after President Reagan left office, the total federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That means all U.S. presidents from George Washington through Ronald Reagan had accumulated only that much publicly held debt on behalf of American taxpayers. That is $335.3 billion less than the $2.5260 trillion that was added to the federal debt held by the public just between Jan. 20, 2009, when President Obama was inaugurated, and Aug. 20, 2010, the 19-month anniversary of Obama's inauguration.
By contrast, President Reagan was sworn into office on Jan. 20, 1981 and left office eight years later on Jan. 20, 1989. At the end of fiscal 1980, four months before Reagan was inaugurated, the federal debt held by the public was $711.9 billion, according to CBO. At the end of fiscal 1989, eight months after Reagan left office, the federal debt held by the public was $2.1907 trillion. That means that in the nine-fiscal-year period of 1980-89--which included all of Reagan’s eight years in office--the federal debt held by the public increased $1.4788 trillion. That is in excess of a trillion dollars less than the $2.5260 increase in the debt held by the public during Obama’s first 19 months.
When President Barack Obama took the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2009, the total federal debt held by the public stood at 6.3073 trillion, according to the Bureau of the Public Debt, a division of the U.S. Treasury Department. As of Aug. 20, 2010, after the first nineteen months of President Obama’s 48-month term, the total federal debt held by the public had grown to a total of $8.8333 trillion, an increase of $2.5260 trillion.
In just the last four months (May through August), according to the CBO, the Obama administration has run cumulative deficits of $464 billion, more than the $458 billion deficit the Bush administration ran through the entirety of fiscal 2008.
The CBO predicted this week that the annual budget deficit for fiscal 2010, which ends on the last day of this month, will exceed $1.3 trillion.
The first two fiscal years in which Obama has served will see the two biggest federal deficits as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product since the end of World War II.
“CBO currently estimates that the deficit for 2010 will be about $70 billion below last year’s total but will still exceed $1.3 trillion,” said the CBO’s monthly budget review for September, which was released yesterday. “Relative to the size of the economy, this year’s deficit is expected to be the second-largest shortfall in the past 65 years: At 9.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), that deficit will be exceeded only by last year’s deficit of 9.9 percent of GDP.”
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/72404
Get Involved Today: 6 GOP Action Centers Need You!
Get involved today to send a message to Washington & Lansing: No more big government tax-and-spending on our watch!
Make phone calls or talk to voters door-to-door. Pick up a lawn sign. Place a bumper sticker on your car. We need you today!
Visit any of these six Republican action centers today:
Bloomfield Fix Michigan Center
42651 Woodward Avenue
Director: Bobby Talbot
btalbot@migopvictory.org
517-862-8321
Troy Fix Michigan Center
671 E. Big Beaver Suite 101
Director: Addison Pierce
apierce@migopvictory.org
517-862-8300
Clarkston Fix Michigan Center
5770 S. Main St., Suite D
Director: Mike Compagnoni
mike@migopvictory.org
517-214-2801
Novi Fix Michigan Center
41700 Gardenbrook Suite 202
Director: Ann-Marie Gostomski
agostomski@migopvictory.org
517-348-9490
Rocky for Congress Campaign HQ
34122 Woodward Avenue, Birmingham, Michigan
Director: Jessica Corbett
jessica@rockyworksforus.com
248-556-4400
Rick Snyder for Governor Oakland County Campaign HQ
43249 Woodward Avenue, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
Director: Stu Foster
stu@rickformichigan.com
734-389-5880
Make phone calls or talk to voters door-to-door. Pick up a lawn sign. Place a bumper sticker on your car. We need you today!
Visit any of these six Republican action centers today:
Bloomfield Fix Michigan Center
42651 Woodward Avenue
Director: Bobby Talbot
btalbot@migopvictory.org
517-862-8321
Troy Fix Michigan Center
671 E. Big Beaver Suite 101
Director: Addison Pierce
apierce@migopvictory.org
517-862-8300
Clarkston Fix Michigan Center
5770 S. Main St., Suite D
Director: Mike Compagnoni
mike@migopvictory.org
517-214-2801
Novi Fix Michigan Center
41700 Gardenbrook Suite 202
Director: Ann-Marie Gostomski
agostomski@migopvictory.org
517-348-9490
Rocky for Congress Campaign HQ
34122 Woodward Avenue, Birmingham, Michigan
Director: Jessica Corbett
jessica@rockyworksforus.com
248-556-4400
Rick Snyder for Governor Oakland County Campaign HQ
43249 Woodward Avenue, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
Director: Stu Foster
stu@rickformichigan.com
734-389-5880
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Shock Prediction: GOP to Take House, Maybe Senate in '10 (Gary Peters has no chance this fall!)
Shock Prediction: GOP to Take House, Maybe Senate in 2010 Election
UVA's Larry Sabato also sees Republicans gaining eight governorships in his crystal ball
By Paul Bedard
Posted: September 2, 2010
Share ThisTypically cautious Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, is rocking the political world with a new "Crystal Ball" prediction: The GOP will win the House, making Ohio's John Boehner speaker, might get a 50-50 split in the Senate, and will pick up some eight new governors.
"2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition," Sabato said in his latest prediction, issued Thursday. "But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats' self-proclaimed 'Recovery Summer' has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered."
Sabato on House elections: "Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a 'net' number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today."
Sabato on the Senate: "In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency."
And in case you're wondering, Sabato has a near flawless record of accurate predictions. Here is his full note :
Sixty Days to Go
The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics September 2nd, 2010
For decades I've advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.
We've been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year's worth of facts has accumulated. We've sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have "gut feelings" about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise.
The Crystal Ball's predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.
2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.
But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats' self-proclaimed "Recovery Summer" has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.
Obama's job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base's turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high.
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
The seat switches are probably coming in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware (but only if the eventual GOP nominee is Rep. Mike Castle), Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We expect Republicans to pick off at least a couple of these states: California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin. While it is possible that Republicans will lose one or two of their own open seats, the only 50-50 chance of that right now is in Florida—and it might not happen even there. There can also be unanticipated shockers if a GOP wave develops. While we rate Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the early favorite to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, his Republican opponent, John Raese, is a self-funder in a strongly anti-Obama state.
The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble, with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention.
The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans' 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.
Republicans are likely or even certain to gain the governorships in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. We believe the GOP candidates also have an edge in Illinois and Oregon—both of these quite surprising. Democrats will also pick up a few statehouses to cut their losses: Hawaii is near-certain, with fair to good shots in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Rhode Island (though we currently retain the last two as toss-ups).
There is no question that the ratings in some close races will change as scandals emerge in the coming sixty days or as the big primaries on September 14 occur. The contests listed only as "leaning" one way or the other are the most vulnerable to shift in the next two months. Unless an unexpected, extraordinary number of these changes are in favor of the Democrats, it is hard to see how Republicans can fail to do very well.
We still have 6 toss-ups for Senate (California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin—seats held by the Democrats in all but Florida ). The 9 toss-ups for Governor are in California, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont—six currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats. In the House, the Crystal Ball counts 29 toss-ups, 28 seats held in this Congress by Democrats and just one by Republicans.
As always, the Crystal Ball will make a guess in every contest before Election Day. Some will be moved sooner, and a few head-scratchers will only be categorized at the very last minute. We're proud of our record, with more than 98% of the contests called correctly over the decade-long life of the Crystal Ball. In some years, our overall seat changes in each category have been exactly on the button, and in 2008 we were a single electoral vote off the Obama-McCain finish of 365-173. But we fully admit here and now that, as always, we'll get some of them wrong. We truly believe our website motto: "He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass." That's part of the fun of politics. Moreover, remembering the great Gallup goof of 1948, we know there's an election year somewhere up ahead when the Crystal Ball cracks so badly we will have to export it to Switzerland for expert repairs.
In 2006 and 2008 the Crystal Ball was full of good news for Democrats, while this one may cause a run on Prozac among our Democratic readers. Is there any way back for the Democrats in the eight remaining weeks?
A political historian always thinks of election-changing events from the past, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 which cut Democratic midterm losses a couple of weeks later, or the autumn 1998 GOP push for Bill Clinton's impeachment that backfired at the polls, eliminating expected GOP gains in the Senate and resulting in a drop of Republican seats in the House. We know what we don't know: Something big and unexpected can always drop from the skies. Naturally, it can work the other way, too—say, a substantial increase in unemployment or negative GDP growth just before Election Day.
If there isn't a dramatic development that has overarching political implications, then Democrats will have to depend on their financial edge, tested candidates, and leaders finding ways to motivate the troops to a far greater extent than we see today (or witnessed in the 2009 off-year elections).
Any shift will quickly show up in the generic ballot match-up among likely voters. Gallup's generic ballot question reads: "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district – the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" In a midterm election, only about 40% of the adults will come to the polls (or vote early), compared to 63% in the presidential contest of 2008. If average Democrats start to demonstrate interest in the election that is comparable to the intensity being shown by Republicans, the generic ballot response among the minority of Americans likely to participate in the midterm election will tighten. While a recent Gallup poll had the GOP leading the generic ballot by a massive 10 percent, on average Republicans are ahead by about 5 percentage points—still quite high by historic standards.
Overall, though, a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular—most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless, in the time-honored American way, voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party.
Each week we will update our ratings in each category, all the way to election eve, November 1st. In that sense, the predictions we make below are the general election's starting points, not the guaranteed finish. There is a lot of good politics to come in September and October, so stay tuned.
http://politics.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/articles/2010/09/02/shock-prediction-gop-to-take-house-maybe-senate-in-2010-election.html
UVA's Larry Sabato also sees Republicans gaining eight governorships in his crystal ball
By Paul Bedard
Posted: September 2, 2010
Share ThisTypically cautious Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, is rocking the political world with a new "Crystal Ball" prediction: The GOP will win the House, making Ohio's John Boehner speaker, might get a 50-50 split in the Senate, and will pick up some eight new governors.
"2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition," Sabato said in his latest prediction, issued Thursday. "But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats' self-proclaimed 'Recovery Summer' has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered."
Sabato on House elections: "Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a 'net' number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot. If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today."
Sabato on the Senate: "In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency."
And in case you're wondering, Sabato has a near flawless record of accurate predictions. Here is his full note :
Sixty Days to Go
The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics September 2nd, 2010
For decades I've advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.
We've been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year's worth of facts has accumulated. We've sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have "gut feelings" about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise.
The Crystal Ball's predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.
2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.
But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats' self-proclaimed "Recovery Summer" has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.
Obama's job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base's turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high.
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a "net" number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
The seat switches are probably coming in Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware (but only if the eventual GOP nominee is Rep. Mike Castle), Indiana, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We expect Republicans to pick off at least a couple of these states: California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin. While it is possible that Republicans will lose one or two of their own open seats, the only 50-50 chance of that right now is in Florida—and it might not happen even there. There can also be unanticipated shockers if a GOP wave develops. While we rate Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the early favorite to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, his Republican opponent, John Raese, is a self-funder in a strongly anti-Obama state.
The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble, with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention.
The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans' 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.
Republicans are likely or even certain to gain the governorships in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. We believe the GOP candidates also have an edge in Illinois and Oregon—both of these quite surprising. Democrats will also pick up a few statehouses to cut their losses: Hawaii is near-certain, with fair to good shots in Connecticut, Minnesota, and Rhode Island (though we currently retain the last two as toss-ups).
There is no question that the ratings in some close races will change as scandals emerge in the coming sixty days or as the big primaries on September 14 occur. The contests listed only as "leaning" one way or the other are the most vulnerable to shift in the next two months. Unless an unexpected, extraordinary number of these changes are in favor of the Democrats, it is hard to see how Republicans can fail to do very well.
We still have 6 toss-ups for Senate (California, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin—seats held by the Democrats in all but Florida ). The 9 toss-ups for Governor are in California, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont—six currently held by GOP chief executives and three by Democrats. In the House, the Crystal Ball counts 29 toss-ups, 28 seats held in this Congress by Democrats and just one by Republicans.
As always, the Crystal Ball will make a guess in every contest before Election Day. Some will be moved sooner, and a few head-scratchers will only be categorized at the very last minute. We're proud of our record, with more than 98% of the contests called correctly over the decade-long life of the Crystal Ball. In some years, our overall seat changes in each category have been exactly on the button, and in 2008 we were a single electoral vote off the Obama-McCain finish of 365-173. But we fully admit here and now that, as always, we'll get some of them wrong. We truly believe our website motto: "He who lives by the Crystal Ball ends up eating ground glass." That's part of the fun of politics. Moreover, remembering the great Gallup goof of 1948, we know there's an election year somewhere up ahead when the Crystal Ball cracks so badly we will have to export it to Switzerland for expert repairs.
In 2006 and 2008 the Crystal Ball was full of good news for Democrats, while this one may cause a run on Prozac among our Democratic readers. Is there any way back for the Democrats in the eight remaining weeks?
A political historian always thinks of election-changing events from the past, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962 which cut Democratic midterm losses a couple of weeks later, or the autumn 1998 GOP push for Bill Clinton's impeachment that backfired at the polls, eliminating expected GOP gains in the Senate and resulting in a drop of Republican seats in the House. We know what we don't know: Something big and unexpected can always drop from the skies. Naturally, it can work the other way, too—say, a substantial increase in unemployment or negative GDP growth just before Election Day.
If there isn't a dramatic development that has overarching political implications, then Democrats will have to depend on their financial edge, tested candidates, and leaders finding ways to motivate the troops to a far greater extent than we see today (or witnessed in the 2009 off-year elections).
Any shift will quickly show up in the generic ballot match-up among likely voters. Gallup's generic ballot question reads: "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district – the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" In a midterm election, only about 40% of the adults will come to the polls (or vote early), compared to 63% in the presidential contest of 2008. If average Democrats start to demonstrate interest in the election that is comparable to the intensity being shown by Republicans, the generic ballot response among the minority of Americans likely to participate in the midterm election will tighten. While a recent Gallup poll had the GOP leading the generic ballot by a massive 10 percent, on average Republicans are ahead by about 5 percentage points—still quite high by historic standards.
Overall, though, a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular—most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless, in the time-honored American way, voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party.
Each week we will update our ratings in each category, all the way to election eve, November 1st. In that sense, the predictions we make below are the general election's starting points, not the guaranteed finish. There is a lot of good politics to come in September and October, so stay tuned.
http://politics.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/articles/2010/09/02/shock-prediction-gop-to-take-house-maybe-senate-in-2010-election.html
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
