Republicans hold lead in generic ballot - U.S. Rep. Gary Peters' hopes of being re-elected dashed once again. Bye, bye liberal!

Republicans hold lead in generic ballot

The Fix

The latest weekly tracking poll from Gallup showing Republicans holding a 48 percent to 44 percent lead in the generic ballot test -- the third straight week that the GOP has stood tied or ahead on the question -- represents the sort of historic anomaly that has to concern Democratic strategists heading into the fall.

As Gallup's Lydia Saad notes, the only times in recent memory that Republicans carried a sustained edge in the generic ballot question -- "Would you vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress if the election was today?" or language similar to that -- were in 1994 and 2002. In each, Republicans either scored significant gains in the House and Senate (1994) or beat back historical midterm election trends (2002).

(Worth noting: Not all data conforms with Gallup's conclusions. A late March Washington Post/ABC national poll gave Democrats a 48 percent to 44 percent edge among registered voters in the generic ballot, a reversal from the 48 percent to 45 percent advantage Republicans enjoyed on the question in an early February survey. But, the closeness of the generic ballot was a marked contrast to the double digit edge Democrats held in advance of the 2006 and 2008 elections.)

We have written many, many times about what the generic ballot means and, as importantly, what it doesn't.

Explains Saad:


"The results -- when based on likely voters shortly before Election Day -- have proved, historically, to be a highly accurate predictor of the national two-party vote. This, in turn, bears a close relationship to the post-election party division of House seats."

Put simply: The generic ballot tell us broadly what direction -- and how strongly -- the national wind is blowing. It doesn't tell us whether Walt Minnick (Idaho) or Bobby Bright (Ala.) is going to win or lose. (Both Democrats, despite their strongly Republican districts, are the early favorites to buck national trends and win re-election this fall.)

Given historic trends in first term, midterm elections -- the President's party typically loses between 20-25 seats -- and what the Gallup generic ballot test is currently showing, it suggests that Republicans have every reason to feel good about where they stand heading into the vote this fall.

Politics is, of course, an unpredictable business (which is why we love covering it so much) and so things can -- and do change.


By Chris Cillizza | April 13, 2010; 12:15 PM ET


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